Voting behaviour and the media- chapter summary

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  • Created by: rasim28
  • Created on: 23-05-18 12:40

The 1979 general election

Key events and issues that took place in the run-up to the election:

  • Wave of public sector strikes in 1978-79. The economy was in a bad state, in particular concerning inflation, which Labour was associated with. 
  • Labour ran a poor election campaign, implying that the country should not elect a woman. Labour was not trusted on the economy. Labour was disunited between its left wing and moderates. The Cons Par promised to expand home ownership, which was popular against Labour. The growing size of middle class gave Tories an advantage.

Party weaknesses and strengths:

  • Labour: Poor election campaign, economy blamed on them, faced strikes, didn't call the election on time. Got 36.9% of votes even though Callaghan was more popular
  • Cons: Promise of expanding home ownership, growing middle class, lower tax and lower spending promise. Got 43.9% of votes, although Thatcher wasn't viewed much competent. TURNOUT WAS 76%.

Impacts of the election:

  • The UK moved from an indecisive,weak govt with a tiny majority to a govt with a working majority. It marked the beginning of 18 consecutive Cons govt. Many people moved to centre or right-wing attitude. End of spending programmes. Privatisation (BritishGas). High unemployment. North neglected. First Anti-EU lPM.
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The 1997 General Election

Key events and issues that took place in the run-up to the election:

  • Blair was seen as charismatic, dynamic leader while John Major was viewed as dull and uninspiring. Blair's Third Way policy appealed to the growing middle class. The electorate was weary of many years of Cons rule and wanted a change. The media showed strong support for Labour- i.e. The Sun shifted position.
  • Before the election there was an economic recession, the NHS was in decline, educational funding was decreasing, crime was at high levels

Party weaknesses and strengths:

  • Cons: Black Wednesday, 1992, they lost their reputation as efficient managers of the economy and failed to retrive it. Economy was in decline. Got 30.7%- 165 seats
  • Lab: New Labour reached out to middle class. Strong-moderate pledges (fast track punishment for persistent young offenders, cutting NHS waiting lists, getting young people off benefits and into work, not rising income tax rates.) So, Lab emerged as Cons, appealed to right and left. Got 43.2%- 418 seats

Impacts:

  • Labour promised huge investment. Cons' electoral wipeout in Scotland and Wales. Lab moved to the middle ground. Presdiential politics took over. Women in politics- over 100 in Lab. Independence to BoE. Minimum wage. Low tax rates. Partly prioritised NHS. Devolution, Lords Reform, Supreme court, Iraq War.
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The 2017 General Election

Key events and issues that took place in the run up to the election:

  • Brexit- divided country and Cons Party leadership, David Cameron resigned, Scotland was aiming for an independence referendum. Early forecasts of a Cons landslide were dispelled two weeks before the election
  • Uni fees was a big debate, it was more of a leaders competition. Clear choice between left wing policies of Lab and centrist policies of Cons. Corbyn enjoyed a successful campaign, raised his profile and support. The opposite for May. Lab used social media effectively.

Party weaknesses and strengths:

  • Cons: Theresa May seen as weak- not turning up to debates- sends Amber Rudd on her behalf, weak campaign and social policy. Little divided party. BUT, Lab was divided, still viewed safer on the economy. And, May had not stated a certain position over Brexit- more trusted. Got 42.4%- 317 seats (-13)
  • Lab: They appealed to young people, strong election campaign, 25-45 year olds liked the ideaa of free unis- 54% voted for them. Cons divided. Nationalisation of railway is popular. BUT, JC was not strong within the Party, division inside the party. Got 40%, 262 seats, (+30)

Impacts:

  • Revival of Labour, extra £1 billion budget for NI. Weakened govt. UKIP and Lib Dem change leaders. SNP got 35 seats (-21), showed resistance to indepenence
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The 2017 General Election

Key events and issues that took place in the run up to the election:

  • Brexit- divided country and Cons Party leadership, David Cameron resigned, Scotland was aiming for an independence referendum. Early forecasts of a Cons landslide were dispelled two weeks before the election
  • Uni fees was a big debate, it was more of a leaders competition. Clear choice between left wing policies of Lab and centrist policies of Cons. Corbyn enjoyed a successful campaign, raised his profile and support. The opposite for May. Lab used social media effectively.

Party weaknesses and strengths:

  • Cons: Theresa May seen as weak- not turning up to debates- sends Amber Rudd on her behalf, weak campaign and social policy. Little divided party. BUT, Lab was divided, still viewed safer on the economy. And, May had not stated a certain position over Brexit- more trusted. Got 42.4%- 317 seats (-13)
  • Lab: They appealed to young people, strong election campaign, 25-45 year olds liked the ideaa of free unis- 54% voted for them. Cons divided. Nationalisation of railway is popular. BUT, JC was not strong within the Party, division inside the party. Got 40%, 262 seats, (+30)

Impacts:

  • Revival of Labour, extra £1 billion budget for NI. Weakened govt. UKIP and Lib Dem change leaders. SNP got 35 seats (-21), showed resistance to indepenence
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Factors affecting voting

Class:

  • AB voting Cons: 1997-59%, 2010- 40%, 2015- 45%, 2017- 43%
  • DE voting Labour: 1997-59%, 2010-40%, 2015-41%, 2017- 59%

Age:

  • 1979: 18-24: 42% Con, 41% Lab. 25-45: 44% Con, 37% Lab. 55+ 47% Con, 38% Lab
  • 1997: 18-24: 27% Con, 49% Lab. 25-45: 28% Con, 49% Lab. 65+ 36% Con, 43% Lab
  • 2017: 18-24: 18% Con, 67% Lab. 25-45: 26% Con, 54% Lab. 45-54: 40%Con, 39% Lab. 65+: 59% Con, 23% Lab

Ethnicity:

  • Since 1997, 65-70% Lab, 18-25% Con

Region:

  • North England: 52.9% Lab, 37.2% Con. South: 45.7% Con, 25.5% Lab. London: 34.9% Con, 43.7% Lab. Scotland:  14.9% Con, 24.3% Lab, 36.9% SNP
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Analysis of voting behaviour

Partisanship and voting attachment:

  • Class dealignment has occured. It means the old links between working class and Lab and mid class and Con have weakened. This causes partisan dealignment.
  • The parties had tended to adopt centrist policies which could attract a wider range of voter support. Labour, however, in 2017 adopted left-wing policies to re-engage its old supporters.
  • Growing support for small parties- UKIP, Green and SNP
  • Widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of parties at Westminster (demosntrated by UKIP votes), so people feel less attachment to them. 
  • Party membership has fallen dramatically 

Valence: refers to the following attitudes towards the partie at elections

  • Governing competency: Does the party appear to be decisive? Did it govern well when it was last in power? (Strength, decisiveness, sensitivty to public opinion). This was a problem for Labour in 2010 and the Lib Dems in 2015.
  • Economic competence
  • How united is the Party: a problem for Labour in 2017
  • Are the leaders admired and trusted?
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Rational choice and issue voting

Rational choice: Concerning Salient issues such as

  • the state of economy
  • NHS
  • the state of education
  • immigration issues
  • trends in crime and law and order
  • In 2017, some salient issues were: how the UK is going to leave the EU- with what deal?, funding of social care for eldrely, taxation of different income groups

Issue voting: similar to rational choice, but voters are concentrating on one single issue or a group

  • Instrumental voting: what the voter thinks will be best for his/her own interest
  • Expressive voting: good of the whole community
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The role and impact of media in elections

  • Newspapers may contribute to setting the agenda- identifying certain issues which may appear most significant - and so favour some parties more than others.
  • Newspapers may influence people concerning the image of leaders. Ed Miliband suffered from a major press campaign in 2015 suggesting he was ineffective. 
  • The press may influence people's image of the parties in general (valence), which may affect some floating voters.
  • Even though newspapers have little impact, some politicians believe they do have a big influence and try to please propretiors.
  • Newspapers in the UK are free so bias is inevitable
  • The evidence suggests that newspaper opinion reinforces existing political attitudes but rarely changes them
  • The broadcast media is not allowed to show political bias, so there is no evidence to their political ifluence.
  • Social media is active in electin campaigns but their influence cannot be estimated as so many different opinions are expressed on social media.
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Opinion polls and elections

  • In recent elections and referendums, opinion polls have proved to be inaccurate, couldn;t predict Cons victory in 2015, Leave vote in 2016 and Hung Parliament in 2017..
  • Voters may adjust their intentions according to what the polls are revealing. E.g. some voters decided not to vote Labour as they feared a Labour- SNP coalition.
  • If the polls are showing a clear outcome one way or another, it may discourage people from voting at all.
  • Parties may adjust thehir policies as a result of opinion poll findings, even though those findings may be inaccurate.

Arguments for banning election polls:

  • They may influence the way people vote.
  • They have proved to be inaccurate, so they mislead the public
  • Arguably, politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls

Arguments against banning them:

  • It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression
  • If they are banned they will become available privately for orgainsations that can afford to pay for them.
  • Polls give valuable info about people's attitudes, which can guide politicians usefully
  • They would still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet.
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