Unit 1 - World At Risk Case Studies

Causes

• Close proximity to Pacific Ring of Fire
• High number of fault lines and ocean trenches. Country is between both the Eurasian and Pacific plate.
• A tropical maritime climate caused by it's close proximity to the typhoon belt.

Events

• Volcanoes (Mount Pinatabou erupted in 1991)
• Earthquakes (Luzon earthquake in 1990. Magnitude 7.8, death toll 1500) (causes Tsunamis)
• Landslides
• Typhoons (causes Flooding)

Vulnerability

• High population density (308 pp km squared).
• Deforestation due to population pressures. Increases risk of landslides.
• Many live below the poverty line (GDP per capita $4,214)
• Many people live in unstable locations (Aeta tribe killed by Pinatubo eruption).

Causes

• Close proximity to the Pacific Ring of Fire. Many fault lines running through the state (San Andreas Fault).
• Coastal location cause of tsunamis.
• Mediterranean climate causes the coastal storms.

Events

• Earthquakes (Loma Prieta 1989. 7.1 magnitude. 68 deaths) & Tsunamis (Crescent City 1964, 12 dead)
• Droughts (La Nina, wildfires an aftermath. 2007 fires killed 22 people)
• Landslides
• Volcanoes

Vulnerability

• 70% of state population live near a fault line.
• Lots of infrastructure on unstable land, causes soil liquefaction (Loma Prieta).
• California has a massive economy ($1.83 trillion GDP) so there will be a massive economic losses.
• 20% of Los Angeles population live below the poverty line.

Information/Causes

• 8th October 2005, 07:52 Local Time. 7.6 magnitude. Collison plate boundary

Impacts (Social/Economic/Environmental)

• 74,702 dead, 106,000 injured. Many were buried under collapsed school buildings,and trapped in homes.
• Hospitals, schools and rescue services including police and armed forces were paralyzed, communications were also badly affected.
• Estimated impacts were worth $5.2 billion.
• The death toll destroyed a significant portion of Pakistan’s current and future economic base, crippling any economic growth in the country.
• Broken sewage pipes contaminated water supplies.

Management

• Pakistani medical teams, engineers and armed forces were the first to respond to the earthquake. This was followed by US Marine and Army helicopters based in neighbouring Afghanistan flying in with aid.
• A total of $6.2 billion was raised for the reconstruction and development of the area.

Information/Causes

• 17th October 1989 05:04 PDT
• 7.1 magnitude. Conservative plate boundary

Impacts (Social/Economic/Environmental)

• 68 killed, 3757 injured.
• Many communities suffered severe damage from the earthquake, a total of 40 buildings collapsing    and many homes dislodged.
• Damage to the region’s transportation system was estimated at $1.8 billion.
• The total estimated loss from the earthquake was 6 to $7 billion.
• The earthquake caused liquefaction of the soil used to create waterfront land.

Management

• Nearly $2 billion was spent on rebuild many of the county’s interstates and freeways.
• On the 26th October, President George Bush Sr. signed a $3.45 billion earthquake relief package

Changes

• 0.5⁰C warmer than 1900
• Sea levels may rise between 15-95cm in the next 100 years

Why is this area at risk?

• Poorer countries are less able to manage the impacts.
• Political turmoil means the appropriate responses aren't made.

Impacts (Social/Economic/Environmental)

• Water shortages will lead to dependence on poor-quality sources, leads to increase in water-borne diseases.
• Increase in humidity and rainfall may cause an increase in malaria.
• Changing patterns in rainfall will affect agriculture, a massive industry in the continent's economy.
• Potential yields may drop by 50%, affecting farmer's earnings.
• 20-50% of species in Africa could face extinction.
• Many low-lying countries are suffering from coastal erosion and flooding (Ghana & Togo most suffering).

Changes

• Permanent sea ice decreased by 14% between 2004-5.
• Up to 40% of total permafrost is expected to thaw, resulting in rising sea levels.

Why is this area at risk?

• Much of the Arctic is ice, which is at risk of melting.
• Positive albedo effect is causing more energy to be absorbed and speeds up the warming effect.

Impacts (Social/Economic/Environmental)

• 24 Inuit villages are now threatened by flooding.
• Inuit diet is being effected by reductions in Caribou, seal and walrus numbers.
• Imported food to cope with the reductions in their diets is expensive ($1 million).
• Shrinking sea ice could open up new shipping routes in the summer.
• Warmer waters have reduced the quantity of marine fish, affecting smaller fish feed and animals higher up the food chain (seals, polar bears).
• Area covered by permafrost is shrinking as permafrost boundary moves north.