The Epidemiological Transition

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Introduction

  • Model conceived by Abdel R.Omran
  • Built on the demographic transition model
  • Theory is based on the shift in disease patterns from a high prevalence of infectious and contagious diseases to a high prevalence in degenerative and non-communicable diseases
  • 3 Stages in 1971
  • 5 Stages in 1998
  • 4 Propositions
  • Measures the gradual shift in age patterns of mortality from young to old
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Proposition 1

  • Mortality is the main factor in explaining population growth and causes of death
  • Linked to social factors rather than medical factors
  • Better nutritional diet
  • Ecological recession of certain diseases
  • Better living and housing environment
  • Increase in contraception
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Stage 1 - Age of Pestilence and Famine

  • Frequent pandemics and epidemics
  • High and fluctuating mortality rates
  • Life expectancy very low at between 20-30 years
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Stage 2 - Age of Receding Pandemics

  • Reduction in mortality rates
  • Epidemics and pandemics less frequent
  • Degenerative diseases begin to emerge
  • Life expectancy increase to between 30-50 years
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Proposition 2

  • Suggests that there was a shift from infectious, contagious diseases to chronic and degenerative diseases.
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Stage 3 - Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Disease

  • Increase in degenerative diseases
  • Increase in life expectancy to above 50 years
  • Epidemics and pandemics become rare
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Proposition 3

Women and children benefit more from the medical advances than men

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Proposition 4

Shifts in disease patterns are associated with socioeconomic and demographic transitions

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Stage 4 - Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases

  • Personal behaviour and lifestyle affecting peoples health
  • Life expectancy increases to 70
  • Increase in degerative diseases
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Stage 5 - Age of Aspired Quality of Life

  • Paradoxical longevity and persistant inequalities
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