The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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Stage 1

Stage 1

  • E.g some remote tribes in Brazil
  • High birth and death rate
  • Low, fluctuating population
  • Very undeveloped populations only - no birth control, no medicine
  • Most countries have moved out of this stage
  • Population Pyramid is very wide at the bottom and very quickly becomes narrow.
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Stage 2

Stage 2

  • E.g. Afghanistan, Nepal
  • Still high birth rate, dropping death rate
  • Rapid population rise
  • Fairly undeveloped nations
  • Population pyramid looks like a triangle.
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Stage 3

Stage 3

  • E.g. Egypt
  • Birth rate falls a lot and death rate falls slightly
  • Slower rate of population increase
  • Countries are becoming more developed so can offer, for example, birth control
  • Population pyramid is quite a lot wider at the bottom than at the top, but quite wide all the way up until the over 70s where it becomes a lot narrower
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Stage 4

Stage 4

  • E.g. USA, most of Europe
  • Low birth rate and low death rate
  • Population is stable and high
  • Countries are very developled so people decide to have luxuries like holidays instead of having a child
  • Population pyramid is only slightly wider at the top than at the bottom, it is quite a bit wider at over 65 years of age than stage 3
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Stage 5

Stage 5

  • E.g Japan and Hungary
  • The birth rate has fallen below the death rate
  • Population is gradually declining
  • Children are expensive to raise so people decide not to have them
  • Population pyramid is becoming quite thin at the bottom and is widest at around 50-65 years of age
  • This stage is JUST A PREDICTION as no country has been in it for a long time so we don't know what will happen
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Population pyramids of all stages

(http://www.geogonline.org.uk/images/g2_pop42.gif)

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