The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Stage 1

• E.g some remote tribes in Brazil
• High birth and death rate
• Low, fluctuating population
• Very undeveloped populations only - no birth control, no medicine
• Most countries have moved out of this stage
• Population Pyramid is very wide at the bottom and very quickly becomes narrow.

Stage 2

• E.g. Afghanistan, Nepal
• Still high birth rate, dropping death rate
• Rapid population rise
• Fairly undeveloped nations
• Population pyramid looks like a triangle.

Stage 3

• E.g. Egypt
• Birth rate falls a lot and death rate falls slightly
• Slower rate of population increase
• Countries are becoming more developed so can offer, for example, birth control
• Population pyramid is quite a lot wider at the bottom than at the top, but quite wide all the way up until the over 70s where it becomes a lot narrower

Stage 4

• E.g. USA, most of Europe
• Low birth rate and low death rate
• Population is stable and high
• Countries are very developled so people decide to have luxuries like holidays instead of having a child
• Population pyramid is only slightly wider at the top than at the bottom, it is quite a bit wider at over 65 years of age than stage 3

Stage 5

• E.g Japan and Hungary
• The birth rate has fallen below the death rate
• Population is gradually declining
• Children are expensive to raise so people decide not to have them
• Population pyramid is becoming quite thin at the bottom and is widest at around 50-65 years of age
• This stage is JUST A PREDICTION as no country has been in it for a long time so we don't know what will happen