Populations in transition

World population growing at an exponential rate (increasing/ accelerating rate of growth). The world's population doubled between 1650 & 1850 and then between 1920 & 1970. 95% of growth taking place in LEDCs. Expected to stabilise between 2050-80 (10-12 bn).

At 2002, the population increased equivalent to the population of Egypt (74 million) - but this is less than the peak of 87m in 1989-90, showing the rate is decreasing. 

In 1990, global fertility rate was 3.3 children per woman - in 2010, it was 2.56 children (just above the level needed to replace the population). 

AIDS has killed more than 20 million people in the past 20 years is lowering average life expectancy at birth to ~40 years in some countries - AIDS impacts Asia, Latin American and Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Botswana/ South Africa).

North America will still have a growing population by 2100 (314m -> 454 m - first generation immigrant families). Also Latin America will have a growing population by 2100.

Despite disease/ war/ famine, population of Africa will be 1.6bn by 2050 - more than 1/5 Africans will be >60.

China/ Hong Kong will see its population shrink from 1.4bn -> 1.25 bn by 2100. And because of rigorous education programme, there will be more well-educated people than Europe+N. America.

India will be more populated than China by 2020.

Europe's population will fall from ~800m -> 600m by 2100 - already happening in countries like Russia/ Serbia due to change from Soviet Union/ war.

About 10% of people in the world are over 60. By 2100, 1/3 will be over 60.

In 1950, there were two Europeans for every African. By 2050, there will be two Africans for every European.

Annutal growth rate: Crude birth rate - Crude death rate/ 100.

Crude birth rate: Number of births per thousand people in a population. (Doesn't take into account age/ sex structure of a population).

General fertility rate: Number of births per 1,000 women aged 15-49.

Age-specific birth rate: the number of births per 1,000 women of a specified age group.

Standardised birth rate: birth rate for a region, assuming that its age composition is the same as the whole country.

Fertility rate: Average number of children per woman. 

Total fertility rate: average number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. 

Infant mortality rate: Number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1,000 births.

Child mortality rate: Number of deaths of children under the age of 5 per 1,000 children. 

Reasons for high birth rates

- Children wanted for labour.    - Look after parents in old age.   - Continue family name/ bloodline.

- For prestige.          - Replace children who have died.       - Children contribute to family income.

Reasons for decreasing birth rates

- Children are expensive.         - Government in developed countries look after people with pensions/ social services. 

- Increasing social status of women mean more want careers (and children act as an impediment).

- More family planning.

- Decreasing infant mortality rate due to better health care (thus no need to replace them).

- Urbanisation/ globalisation result in changes in traditions/ cultures for a big family and adaptions of Western views of the ideal nuclear family. 

Japan and India have the highest population densities (~350 and ~300 people per square kilometer respectively).

Japan has the lowest infant mortality rate at 3 per 1,000 whereas it's 51 per 1,000 in India.

Life expectancy in Japan is 82 whereas 66 in India.

Fertility rate in Japan is 1.2 whereas it's 2.6 in India.

Japan have a very old population: there are 22 people >60 per 1,000 whereas there are only 5 in India.

Japan spend 3.5% of their GNP on education and India spend ~3%.

Africa has the fastest growing population in the world: in 1850 it was 110m people - in 2009 its billionth baby was born. Pessimists (Malthusians) predict that the population will exert an unbearable strain on food/ schools/ housing/ healthcare. However, Africa has 20% of the world's landmass and only 13% of population, as well as a very young work force (vs Europe's ageing).

Nigeria and Uganda's populations have grown the fastest. 2 Europeans per African in 1950 - in 2050, there will be 2 Africans per European. Niger has the world's highest fertility rate - 7.4. 

One reason for rising population is low life-expectancy due to the AIDS pandemic as well as lack of contraception/ education. Only ~28% of women use contraception in Africa (compared to global 65%). Also, this is further aggrevated by the lower social status of women - they may not have control over their bodies, even by law + their access to contraceptives may be limited. 

Sub-Saharan Africa has the most youthful population in the world, which is predicted to stay like this for decades. In 2050, Africa is expected to have 349 million people between 15-24 (29% of its population compared to 9% previously in 1950). 

The population is decreasing in the Balkans. Serbia's population is 7.2m, decreasing by 30 000 per year. It could shrink to 6m by 2050. This is not because of a desire for smaller families and wealth, but because of war and economic hardship have led to fwere children, mass emigration and high abortion rates. 

Croatia, with a population of 4.4m is shrinking (drastically).

Kosovar's fertility rate is dropping. In 1950, it was 7.8 - in 1990, it was 3.6. In 2010, it is ~2.2.

Fertility in Albania has fallen from 2.0 in 2000 to 1.33 in 2007. By 2007, the population of Albania has fallen to to 3.1 million. This is because so many women of childbearing age have emigrated (pull factors such as employment prospects, higher social status, better healthcare/ infrastructure, etc). 

Death rates are higher when there is a lack of clean water (cholera, dysentery), lack of food, poor hygiene and sanitation, overcrowding (leading to quick spread of contagious diseases). These are conditions associated with poverty. Death rates highest in poor rural areas, squatter settlements, refugee camps.

Death rates decline when there is clean water, reliable food supply, good hygiene and sanitation, lower population densities, better health care. 

Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population. (It is crude as populations with more aged people [as in developed countries] have a higher CDR than countries with youthful populations). Global CDR in 2005-10 was ~9 per thousand. 

Lowest early death risks (per 1,000)

Women: Cyprus (38), Japan (41), South Korea (40).

Men: Iceland (65), Sweden (71), Netherlands (73). 

Researchers looked at early deaths (under 60 years) in ~200 countries in 1970, 90, 2010 and the overall risk fell by ~30% in women and ~20% in men, reflecting medical advances and rising affluence. South Asia saw the most rapid decline for women and Australia men. 

Sub-Saharan Africa currently has high death rates, with half of people dying early compared to 1/20 in some developed countries. This reflects the AIDS pandemic over the recent years.

In the UK, 58 deaths per 1,000 women are before 60, while thereare 90 deaths per men. In Western Europe, Danish and Belgian women have a higher risk than those in the UK. 

Several factors influence the death rate, such as: age structure, poverty, occupation, social status of women, natural hazards, war, diet, GNP. 

Between 1960-80, almost every country in the world saw an increase in life expectancy. (South Asia 42->60, North Africa 47->65). The exception was in sub-Saharan Africa; the AIDS epidemic caused a large increase in mortality - brinnging life expectancy below its 1960 level. 

Life expectancy: average number of years that a person can expect to live, usually from birth - given demographic factors remain unchanged. 

In rich countries, half the babies born in 2007 can expect to live to 104, and half the Japanese babies to 107. More people are surviving chronic illnesses (e.g. cancer, heart conditions due to earlier diagnosis/ better treatment). Also, shorter work weeks/ working from home -> less stress.

Population pyramids

They tell us about age/ sex structures. They help planners find out services/ facilities (e.g. schools/ hopsitals required). 

Wide base = high birth rate. Narrow base = falling birth rate. Straight sides = low death rate. Concave slope suggests high death rate. Bulges in the slope = high immigration (e.g. bulges in males aged 20-35). 

Growth rate: average annual percentage change in population due to surplus/ deficit births over deaths, including the balance of migration. May be positive or negative. Used to determine the burden imposed due to changing population structure and changing needs of the population.

Doubling time: the length of time it takes for a populatino to double, assuming its natural growth rate remains constant. Doubling time ~ 70/ growth rate percentage.

Population momentum: Tendency for a population to grow/ fall despite a rise/ fall in birth rate/ ferility levels. Due to an abundance of people in the childbearing age. 

Population projection: predictions about future populations based on trends in fertility, mortality and migration. 

Dependency ratio: (population aged <15 + population aged >64) / (population aged 16-64). Very crude - e.g. many people go to education >15 years and many people work >64 years. 

In MEDCs, there is a high proportion of elderly. 

In LEDCs, there is a high proportion of youth. 

Youthful Advantages: Large potential workforce. Lower medical costs. Attractive to investment from Transnational organisations. Source of new innovation/ creativity/ ideas. Large potential market for goods. Development of services e.g. schools, hospitals.

Disadvantages: Cost of supporting schools/ clinics. Need to provide sufficient food, housing and water to a growing population e.g. Kbera, Nairobi. High rates of unemployment. Large numbers of youths living in poor quality housing (squatter settlements). High rates of population growth. High crime rates due to depravity. 

Ageing Advantages: The elderly are highly skilled (including social skills) and employers (supermarkets/ home improvement/ furniture stores) prefer them to young workers. The elderly can look after their grandchildren so both parents can work. This is important in Japan/ South Africa/ countries with youthful populations. In rich countries, the elderly are viewed as the "grey economy" - important for holiday companies/ healthcare providers. An ageing population is due to the delayed impact of high post-was fertility rates/ improvements in health care. 

Disadvantages: Burden on careers/ social services. Retirement/ work will have implications on health care services. Implications on family structures. Europe has 23/ 25 of the world's countries with oldest people. By 2040, >1/4 Europeans will be 65. 

Older dependency ratio: the number of people aged >=65 for ever 1000 people aged 20-64.

It is 7 per 100 workers in Bangladesh vs 33 per 100 in Japan. 

In France, life expectancy after retirement is 21/26 for men/ women. Women live 7 years longer.

Japan: Japan has an ageing population due to the delay from high birth rates from 1945 and low death rates due to medical advances. The number of elderly people living alone in Japan is 2.5m (2000) vs 0.8m in 1980. Under 15% of the Japanese population are currently over 65. This will be 25% in 2020. This is imposing several burdns on Japan, e.g:

-inadequate nursing facilities.       - depletion of the labour force.      - deterioration of the economy

-trade deficit.               -migration of Japanese to overseas.       -cost of pensions/ health care.

-new jobs for elderly.        -burden on the working population to serve dependent. 

-reduced demand for goods from smaller working population - although it creastes a grey economy.                        - a need for in-migration to fuel a working force. 

In the 1950s, chairman Mao Zedung's philosophy was a large nation is a strong nation, and advocated pro-natalism, resulting in a baby boom. There was also emphasis on a shift to an industrial economy rather than an agricultural. Steel and iron production deemed imperative due to Mao's bid for technological advance. Peasants ordered away from their agricultural lifestyle resulting in a famine from 1958-60. During 1961-73, there was a baby boom of ~55m (population of Britain). 

This imposed burdens on China - on their food demand. Use of technology (fertilisers, pesticides) increased the productivity per hectare but not sustainable (soil erosion, degradation of arable land, natural disasters.). Shortages in water supplies - average water volume per person in China is 1/4 of world average. Unemployment is another problem due to Mao's bid for a large population. 

During 1974-9, government propaganda was changed to 'wan-xi-shao' (later, longer, fewer) as in later marriages, longer gaps between children, fewer children. When this didn't work, the one-child policy was introduced, and enforcment was strict. Strong pressure was placed on women to use contraception and granny police was implemented to enforce this. Enforced abortions/ sterilisation became common. Bigger families became socially outcast. 

Incentives introduced - 'one child certificate' involved benefits e.g. increased maternity leave, highest priority in education, health care for children. Free sterilisation/ contraception/ abortion was introduced. Marrying age changed to 22 (males) and 20 (females). 

Penalties: abortion can be enforced for second-child pregnancies by granny police. There can be fines (up to 10 000 Yuan). Couples can be taxed up to 50% more. In villages, livestock are taken/ rice rations and health care priveleges are stripped. 

Variations: Only in urban areas predominantly; couples allowed to have >1 child in some rural areas. If husband/ wife both from one child family, they can have 2 children. Allowed to have another if first is mentally-disabled/ dies. In some rural areas, second child if first is girl. Doesn't apply to 55 minorities in China/ Tibetans. 

Results/ repercussions: over the past 30 years, population reduced by 300m. Birth rate fallen from 37 per thousand (1965) to 18 (1995). Rate of natural increase still steady at 10 per 1000 due to improved health care/ decreased death rate. There is a distorted male:female ratio - naturally it is ~100:103 but in China it is 116:100. One-child policy has led to pre-natal sex scanning, selective sex abortion and even feticide/ infanticide. The difference between males/ females is ~30m. Young men struggle to find partners and resort to prostitution. 

Also resulted in an ageing population combined with improved health care/ falling death rates. In 2030, the percentage of aged people of the population could be 30%. In 2050, the number of people >65 could be 350m (vs 65m in 2000). This could be a hindrance as more money needs to be invested to care for these people. Each worker will need to support ~x5 as many people. 

The future: abortions cannot be forced anymore. There is no emphasis on the use of contraceptives but rather to educate the people. Pre-natal sex scanning is now illegal, however, this has created a black market for equipment. In 2006, the annual growth rate fell to 0.6% and the fertility rate was still 1.6. In the long-term, the aim is to stabilise the population by 2050. 

In the 60s, Romania was approaching 0 population growth, which would have repercussions on its future labour supply and for industrialisation, so pro-natalist policies were implemented. In 1966, the government banned abortion on demand. Abortion became a criminal offence, with penalties. People who were childless after 25 were liable for special tax, (up to 20% of their income). Divorce was made more difficult as well. 

Family allowances were raised, and monetary awards were given to mothers on the birth of a third child. The income tax rate for parents of 3 or more was reduced by 30%. 

The policies has immediate impact - the number of live births increased by 92% from ~270 000 in 1966 to ~530 000 in 1967. Contraceptives were not manufactured and importation had stopped - sudden unavailability was a shock. Abortion rates fell over the two years, but there were rising infant/ maternla mortality rates associated with therestriction on abortion and marred this initial success. 

After enforcement was relaxed a bit, the increase in births stopped. The number of abortions increased. The incentives provided by the state weren't enough to sustain an increase in birth rate, which again started to decline. By 1980, the annual birth rate fell to 14.3 per 1,000 and the number of abortions exceeded the number of live births. 

Singapore has a birth rate of 11/1000 and a death rate of 5/1000. The population is expected to peak in 2030 and start to decline. Singapore had a rapidly rising population due to migration from China/ Malaysia/ India and then they declined. The government introduced a two-child policy, leading to population growth falling below replacement level. So, pro-natalist policies were introduced. 

They targeted young people who were prioritising their careers over children. Posters were placed advocating children "children - life would be empty without them". The aim was to increase the fertility rate from 1.4 to 2.1 (replacement level). In 1988, fertility level rose to 2.0. The policy particularly targets intellectually talented people - university-level graduates are encouraged to have up to 4 children to raise a generation of talented, educated babies. Also, they are actively encouraging immigration from educated people from Asia and discouraging graduate emigration. 

Strengths: Was effective in increasing fertility rate. Provides a potential large number of active population. Women as a result of pro-natalist policies can now more easily balance their career with family life.

Limitations: It didn't take immediate effect. Likely to reach a point where fertility rate will no longer decrease. Money is often the best incentive which requires government funding. 

Ultrasound technology + preference for boys has led to selective abortion and foeticide. India has lost ~10m girls in the past 20 years. In the 12 years since, selective abortion is illegal and only 1 doctor has been convicted for it. 

Wealthier/ educated people still want sons - female foeticide was highest among women with university degrees. The middle class can also afford ultrasound tests. From 2003-5, India has had 880 females born for every 1000 males. 

The shortage of women has had negative social effects: unmarried young men are turning to crime/ sexual violence against women. Some men in the rich northern state of Haryana have started buying bribes from other parts of India. Many of these women become slaves and their children are socially ostracised. 

Migration: the movement of people involving a change of residence. It can be internal/ external and voluntary/ forced. It is usually for an extended period of time (more than 1 year) and does not include temporary circulations such as commuting/ tourism. 

Remittances: the transfer of money/ goods by foreign workers to their home countries. 

Migration theories: Ernest Ravenstein invested migration in northwest Britain during the 1880s. Most migrants proceed over short distance. Due to limited technology at the time and poor communication, people knew more about local opportunities. Migration occurs in a series of steps/ stages, usually from rural to small town, then to large town/ city. Migrants afterwards become locked in due to hierarchy. There is also movement away from large cities - the rich move away from urban areas to suburban areas where the environment is nicer and commute from nearby villages to their work. Long-distance migrants ususally go to large cities - know more about opportunities. Urban dwellers migrate less than rural dwellers. Women are more migratory than men due to marriages/ societes where women have low social status. Migeration increases with advances in technology. 

Zipf's inverse distance law: Volume of migration inversely proportional to distance travelled.

Stouffer's model: The volume of migrants was directly proportional to the number of opportunities at a place but inversely proportional to the existing opportunities between the two places.

Lee's push-pull model: Push factors are negative factors that causes a person to move away from a place (unemployment, low wages, natural hazards). Pull factors are the attractions (real or imaginary) that exist at another place (better wages, more jobs, better schools). 

Effects of migration: It provides a large workforce for the recipient country (e.g. USA/ UK/ UAE in particular where 85% of workforce are international). In UK/ USA, migrants make up 10-15% of labour force. In comparison, Germany, who has strict immigration laws complain about shortage of skilled workers (software engineers/ scientists/ engineers). Also, jobs which locals don't want to do, migrants can do. 

Disadvantages on the donor country: "The brain drain". For example, Bangladesh has lost 65% of its doctors to overseas. In 2005, 1 million/6.6 million skilled workers emigrated from poor countries. The problem is aggrevated by MEDCs actively welcoming more migrant workers to make up for their labour shortage. In sub-Saharan Africa, there are 10 doctors/ 100 000 - in the UK, it is 300 / 100 000. 

America's economy boom of 1990s was partially due to the large influx of immigrants - more than 13.5m, accounting for more than 50% of the growth of the labour market. The migrants helped fill the gap of the 4.5m due to the ageing American population. A large percentage of these workers are immigrants from Bangladesh/ India/ Pakistan who have graduate level degrees in medicine/ engineering and form a strong, educated workforce in the USA, which is partially why the US has become one the the strongest technological powerhouses, because the large influx of talented software engineers from these Asian countries. 

However, obviously, this has caused Bangladesh/ India to struggle with their own development due to the loss of their talent pool. Haiti/ Gambia have lost over 50% of their educated professionals. In China, between 1978-08, one million Chinese graduates have emmigrated, only ~1/4 have returned. 

Refugee: a person fleeing their home country to escape danger.

Asylum seeker: people seeking refugee status in another country.

Illegal immigrants: people who enter another country without permission and plan to remain there. 

Economic migrant: a person seeking job/ economic opportunities.

Internally displaced persons: those who have fled their homes but continue to live in their own country. 

Push factors for refugees are: intolerance/ discrimination from their society. Environmental deterioration (over population). State persecution. Natural disasters. War. 

For 100 days in Rwanda between April and June in 1994, there was a genocide. 800 000 people were slaugtered (1/10th of population) and most were from the Tutsi tribe. The massacre was initiated by the death of the Hutu president, but the tension leads back to history. For the past decades, the Tutsis enjoyed the best job opportunities/ health care/ education (when Belgian colonists came in 1916) and Hutus were discriminated against. This tension culiminated and was released explosively as the assassination of the president was the final nail in the coffin. 

An unofficial military group (30 000) encouraged all civilians to participate in the massacre, with incentives such as the food/ clothes/ land of the massacred Tutsi. In July, a ceasefire was declared. Approximately 2 million of the Hutu tribe fled to Congo in fear of murder charges. 

Approximately 2/3 of Rwanda's teachers had fled/ were killed. Young people's education were disrupted. Young people were scarred for life, watching their fellow man die in front of their eyes. Rwanda's coffee plantation (biggest export) was halted due to workers fleeing/ killed. In 2004, they exported 14 000 tonnes of coffee (vs peak of 42 000). Rwanda's economy has only registered a growth rate of 8% a year, slumping by 50%. 2/3 of the people live below the poverty line. The GDP per capita is $250. In 2005, it changed to $1 500, so it is improving, but world average is $9 500. It feels like time has stood still. Rwanda's regeneration has been fuelled by remittances.

Women are discriminated against in many countries. Women are disadvantaged from birth in countries with preference for boys. Girls receive less nutrition (women produce 70% of world's food but only eat 10%). Women who are undernourished. 

Tenure: the wayi n which the rights, restrictions and responsibilities that people have wrt the land are held. Few African countries have laws to assure women's access to land and property. Burkina Faso, Rwanda and South Africa do however. 

Working women are increasingly becoming unionised to overcome this discrimination. 

Female life expectancy in Arabic couuntries is up from 52 in 1970 to ?70 in 2004. The number of children borne by the average Ara woman has fallen by half over the past decades. In Oman, fertility has fallen from 10 birth per woman to less than 4. 

More and more women are migrating to countries in which they have more social status. In developed countries, female migrants made up more than half of the total migrants in 2007. 

Smallest country in Africa and 95% are Muslin. There has been a taboo on contraceptives and the birth rate is high - fertility rate is ~7.2. For every 1 000 children born, 11 mothers will die. The life expectancy for women is 57, and 53 for men. The population will double every 28 years. 

There is not enough money in Gambia to build infrastructure and develop twins. Healthcare is very limited and infant mortality rate is 73/ 1 000. 

Total population: 1.33 million. Death rate: 12 per 1000. Birth rate: 42 per 1000. Fertility rate: 6 children per woman. Natural increase: 3.3%. 

Responses: Introduction of contraception, awareness, radio adverts. Cheap contraception, subsidised by world health organisation. Canada is funding free vaccination for their children. Improved maternity care also, as it helps children survive. The German government are funding a forest management scheme to plant new forest to educate population. More children are attending school due to education funding. United nations are funding improved health care, gender equality, preventing the spread of HIV, all women have safe contraception. 

GambiaHELP: Charities identify to solve problems, improve primary education, empower rural communities, support health/ environment/ sanitation initiatives. Clean and mutliple water wells. 

Over the last 30 years, 40 000 legal migrants have migrated from Morocco to Spain, and over 100 000 illegal migrants. 

Push factors: poorer quality of life. Lack of jobs. Jobs are poorly paid. Avoid conscription (enforced military service). Avoild civil unrest/ war. Land shortages exacerbated by overpopulation.

Pull factors: Spanish coast is only 14km across the Straits of Gibraltar. Better quality of life. Far more jobs available. Jobs are better paid. Jobs are all year round and reliable. Jobs require limited training/ skills. Existing friends/ family have already migrated/ provide emotional pull. TV/ Internet images of the "promise land". 

Morocco: Life expectancy = 70. GNP per capita = 1,100. HDI = 0.6 Illiteracy = 55%

Spain: Life expectancy = 79. GNP per capita = 13, 500. HDI = 0.9. Illiteracy = 4%. 

Effects on Spain. Positive: Cheap labour. Potential exploitation. Immigrant labour force more committed. Driven growth of greenhouse industry - multiplier effect. Migrants are very skilled. Migrants bring new foods/ music/ enhance cultural diversity. 

Negative effects: Remittances drain money from economy. Migrants create job competition. Ethnic concetrations create urban villages/ ghettos. Enhance local tension. Marriages may create tension as migrants are "taking their women", children may be ostracised. Illegal immigrants cause enhanced problems: social tension in El Ejido, 2000 riots. Poor living conditions increase disease risk. Increased crime links due to people trafficking along with possible human rights abuse. Costs of border control. Knock on effects of trafficking - Canary Islands recieved 5,000 illegal migrants in 2006.Skilled migrants may leave Spain. Additional pressures placed on resources. Migrants allow an unsustainable industry to flourish. Growth of greenhouse industry is an eyesore. 

Effects on Spain: Positive: Remiitances sent back. Reduced competition for jobs. Reduced pressure on resources. Reduced population. Migrants may return (emotional) bringing back skills/ cultures. 

Negative: Loss of male, active population. Families broken up, fall in birth rate, rapid ageing of population. Potentially the most fit/ skilled are lost. Deaths of Moroccans trying to cross the sea - emotional distress - 1/8 die trying to cross via Canary Islands. 1 000 bodies found on the Spanish coastline. Costs of fighting organised crime. Depopulation -> ghost villages. Remittances may encourage dependency.