Population Change -AS

CORE HUMAN SECTION

  • Population Indicators
  • Population Change
  • Population Structures
  • Social, economic and political implications of population change
  • Natural population change and migration in rural/urban areas
  • Settlement case studies
  • Implications of :housing, ethinicity, age structure, wealth and employment and the provision of services for social welfare.
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  • Created by: elinor
  • Created on: 18-05-12 13:32

AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Population Key Terms-Vital Rates

Migration Rate-Amount of people entering/leaving a country shown as %.-figures=people leaving.+figures =people entering

Birth Rate-A measure of an areas fertility. No of live births per 1000 people in a year.

Infant Mortality Rate-no of deaths of infants under 1yrs of age/1000 live births in a given population.

Death Rate-The number of deaths per 1000 people in a year

Fertility Rate-Amount of babies born per woman over her lifetime.must be 2.1+ for replacement.

Life Expectancy-The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live.

Population Density-The total population of a country divided by total area (km2)

Longevity-Increase in life expectancy over period of time.Direct result of improved medical provision& increased levels of economic developments.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Vital Rates for countries at different stages

Birth RateUK:12.29/1000 Sweden:10.18/1000 Brazil:17.79/1000 India:20.97/1000 Kenya: 33.54/1000

Death RateUK:9.33/1000 Sweden:10.20/100 Brazil:06.36/1000 India:07.48/1000 Kenya:08.93/1000

Population ChangeUK:0.557% Sweden:0.163% Brazil:1.134% India:1.344% Kenya:2.462%

Infant RateUK:4.02/1000 Sweden:2.74/1000 Brazil: 21.17/1000 India:47.57/1000 Kenya:52.29/1000

Fertility RateUK:1.91 Sweden:1.67 Brazil:21.17 India:47.57 Kenya:52.29

Life ExpectancyUK:80yrs Sweden:81.07yrs Brazil:72.53yrs India:66.8yrs Kenya:59.48yrs

Migration RateUK:2.6/1000 Sweden:1.65/1000 Brazil:-0.09/1000 India:47.57/1000 Kenya:0/1000

Population DensityUK:254.7/km2 Sweden:20.6km2 Brazil:22/km2 India:363.1km2 Kenya:67.2/km2

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

DATA COLLECTION (E.G. CENSUS)

Most countries in the world collect data about their populations, usually a census. (Detailed collection of information-a regular basis, data collected include: employment characteristics,ethnicity,educational attainment,patterns of social activity,and housing type+ownership) UK:Data collected by areas of local government and by postcode. Smallest area-one census collector;known as enumeration district. Information collected is of use to; Governments; to provide a basis for the allocation of resources to services + Non-Government bodies; retailers, property developers etc

At a national government level;

  • Snapshot of the diversity of the country + helps with prediction of natural pop change/migration patterns
  •  Enables planning of national transport demands/estimation of nation housing demands

For business and commerce;

  • Enables targeted marketing;postcode areas and insurance industry;assess risk more effectively
  • Enables retailers to invest in optimum locations where spending is highest.
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

The demographic transition model (http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/images/pop_001a.gif)

The five stages of the demographic transition model

  1. Total pop is low- high birth rates and high death rates.
  2. Total pop rises,death rates fall -improvements in health care+sanitation. Birth rates remain high.
  3. Total pop is still rising rapidly. The gap between birth+death rates narrows-availability of contraception+fewer children being needed to work .Natural increase-high.
  4. Total pop is high, low BR+ low DR. Birth control is widely available+desire for smaller families.
  5. Total pop is high but going into decline due to an ageing population.Continued desire for smaller families, with people opting to have children later in life.
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

The Validity and Application of the DTM

The DTM is useful because:

  • It is universal in concept- can be applied to countries worldwide
  • Provides a starting point for study of demographic change over time
  • Timescales are flexible
  • Easy to understand
  • Enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries

The DTM has limitations:

  • The original model did not include the fifth stage
  • It it eurocentric and assumes all countries in the world will follow the European sequence of socioeconomic changes
  • Does not include the role of governments
  • Does not include the impact of migration
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Population Structure

Population structures at different stages of the demographic transition. It is a particular kind of bar chart showing structure of population, being very useful for interepting a lot of information about a population, such as:

  • the number/% of people in each age group
  • which age groups are largest/smallest.
  • whether birth rates are rising or falling
  • whether infanct mortality rate is high or low
  • whether life expectancy is high or low

It is best illustrated by a population or age-sex pyramid. The technique normally divides the population into 5-year age groups (e.g. 0-4, 5-9, 10-14) on the vertical scale and into males and females on the horizontal scale. The number in each age group is given as a % of the total pop and is shown by horizontal bars, males- left + femals- right.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

POPULATION CASE STUDY

France BR: 12.57/1000 ,DR: 8.56/1000, Total pop: 64,057,792 ,Pop growth rate: 0.549%

The French government encourages/ensures women give birth to more children 'Baby Boom' -aging pop.

Social aspect

  • Easier to bring up a family, can have help at home
  • State nursery schools; take on from 3+, system of creches
  • Pop increase is from home-grown births + only 25% to immigration.
  • Highest women workforce,80%  25-49 have jobs.Shows right policies work+babies go well.

Economic aspect 

  • Tax deduction-home help,financial contribution at start of the year+monthly £180-family of 3
  • Calibrated income tax rate- more children= less tax
  • Pay out of £345 a month for mothers(occ. fathers)to take time off for upto 3 years for 3rd child.
  • The large family card- 30% off trains, 50% metro, free swimming and £150 to sports + arts.
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Ratio and Index

The age structure of a country/area can also be measured by a number of other indices:

  • Dependency ratio
  • The support ratio
  • The juvenility index
  • The old-age index

 EU: young -19 and under, old - 60 and over. Other countries: young -15 and under, old -65 and over.

Dependency ratio=(pop 0-19) + (pop 60+) / (pop 20-59)

Support ratio is the inverse of the dependency ratio.

Juvenility Index= (pop 0-19) / (pop 20+)

Old-age index= (pop 60+) / (pop 20-59)

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Migration

KEY TERMS

Forced Migration: the migrant has to migrate because of the circumstances

International Migration: The UN defines international migration as the movement of people across national frontiers, for a min of 1 yr.

Migration: A permanent/semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of people

Net Migration: The difference between the numbers of in-migrants and out-migrants in an area. + net migration =in over out, - net migration =out over in.

Rural-urban and urban-rural migration : LEDCS;net migrational + of urban areas at the expense of rural areas= Urbanisation, MEDCS;movements from urban to rural= Counter-urbanisation.

Voluntary Migration: The migrant makes the decision to migrate.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

The impact of migration

Factors affecting population change:a) natural increase+ b)net migration. Migration can be categorised using a number of criteria(scale,direction, distance,decision making+cause of movement)

Migration tends to be subject to distance-decay -is the further away from the place, the less migrants there are.  Refugees tend to move only short distances; economic migrants travel greater distance.

Push and Pull factors

Push factors are negative aspects of current places where you live; Remote, Less jobs, Drought, Poor harvests/housing, Poor health etc Pull factors are positive aspects (attraction) of the destination; Money, Jobs, Schools, Food, Health etc

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION

Source country:

Economic; (-)less economically active people, standard of living could decline, fewer people to support elders, loss of labour (+)reduced unemployment, less pressure on resources, repatriation

Social;(-)family tradition lost with youngers migrating, marriage rates fall, inbalance in pop pyramid (+)new cultures brought, areas develop, less people living, more resources, remittance sent can help improve the area

Political; encourage natural increase (pronatalist), reduce number of outmigration/increase in migration, international aid

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION

Destination country:

Economic; (-)have to provide healthcare and other services for more people, losing money due to repatriation, increased pressure on resources (+)skill gap filled, increase in working pop, migrants do jobs

Social;(-)more people may lead to overcrowding, less job oppurtunities, aspects of cultural identitylost (+)more skilled workers, multicultural, more new food

Political; anti-racism laws, stricter immigration laws.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

The way population changes and migration affects the character of rural and urban characters. 

Pop increase in rural areas

+ new types of village shops e.g. farm shops can be created

+Old rundown farm house have been renovated, improving the aesthetics of the area

-Potential overcrowding, pressure on resources. Conflicts can arise

-Increased pollution/congestion from the commuters and house prices increase

-Loss of 'rural/village charm'

Pop decrease in rural areas

+Reduced pressure on resources and village life remains peaceful

-Skilled people move away, loss of services such as public transport etc

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Definitions; 

  • Over-population: The resources cannot sustain the current population.As long as there is over population the quality of life will decline; unemployment,pollution,degradation of the environment.
  • Under-population: The population cannot fully utilise the resources available.Quality of life can only slowly be improved.An increase in population would lead to an increase in quality of life.
  • Optimum population:The population is such that it can maximise the benefits from the resources available.It is only when we have optimum population that the quality of life is maximised.
  • Carrying capacity: The number of people that an area can support given the quality of the natural environment+the level of technology of the population.

Resources -Key Concepts
Natural (environmental) vs. Human (cultural, economic, technological and political) resources.
Non-renewable resources (finite: fossil fuel, capital, stocks)
Renewable resources (non-finite: water, stock vs flow vs continuous)

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

THEORIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Malthus (British Demographer)

Had a pessimistic approach, he believed there was a finite optimum population size in relation to food and supply, and that an increase in population beyond that point would lead to a decrease in living standards and to 'war, famine and disease' 

Recognised that population, if unchecked, grows at a exponential rate- however, food only increases at an arithmetic rate, as land is finite. Eventually the number of people exceeds the available resources and checks set in. Once a ceiling had been reached (carrying capacity) further population growth would be stopped by negative or positive checks.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE CHECKS

Negative

  • Used to limit the pop growth. Included abstinence/postponement of marriage- lowering fertility rate. Malthus noted a correlation between wheat prices and marriage rates (REMEMBER IT WAS LATE 18TH CENTURY!)
  • Malthus favoured moral restraint (incl.late marriage and abstinence) as a check on pop growth. Malthus proposed this only for the working/poor classes!

Positive

  • Ways to reduce population size by events such as ;famine, disease and war. Increasing mortality rate and reducing life expectancy
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

THEORIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Boserup (Danish economist)

Believed that people have resources of knowledge and technology and that "necessity is the mother of invention", thus as populations grow towards the carrying capacity they develop new ways to use resources (food) more productively.

  • Demographic pressure(pop density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding etc) and labour (tools, better techniques)
  • Evidence in the Green Revolution. Occured in 1940's-1970, increasing agricultural production around the world, by using new fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation. 

Example; The introduction of the IR8 rice strand allowed annual rice production in the Philippines to increase from 3.7 to 7.7 million tons in two decades 

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

THEORIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION AND RESOURCES

The Club of Rome

The Club of Rome are an organisation. 

If population growth rate and resource utilisation stayed at the same level (as of 1972) then a sudden decline in economic growth would occur before 2100.

They out forward plans for global equilibrium -stabilisation of population growth, use or resources, industrial growth and economic dev. And an emphasis on food production. 

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Population Case Study.

Overpopulation: Bangladesh 124 million inhabitants(1998),high pop density of 953 persons per km2.It has a high birth rate (49/1000 in 1970,30/1000 in 1998)&fertility rate (7 per woman-1970,4 per woman-1998)&declining -death rate (28-1970,11-1998)

40% living in poverty(defined by the UN as receiving <2122 calories per day).Shortage of industry,services&raw materials (has no energy/mineral resources)&the transport network is limited.The low level of literacy(36%)led to limited internal innovation,&lack of capital has meant that the country can ill afford to buy technical skills from overseas.Bangladesh receives $11 per person per year in aid. 

Underpopulation: Canada 30.2 million inhabitants(1998),low pop density of 3 persons per km2.It has low birth rate (16/1000 in 1970,13/1000 in 1998),a low fertility rate (2.2 per woman in 1970,2.0 per woman in 1998)&a low death rate (7/1000 in both 1970+1998)

The GNP of US$ 19 380 per person is very high.Canada has developed industries,services,energy supplies&mineral resources&an efficient transport network.The high level of literacy (99%)&national wealth have enabled it to develop it own technology&to import modern innovations.Canada donates US$ 73 per person per year of aid.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

POPULATION CASE STUDY

China 

Positive

  • Over 30 years of family planning, the pop growth has been reduced by 300 million
  • Total fertility rate has fallen; 1970- 5.75, 1990- 2.25, 2000- 1.7
  • 2007, 1.3 billion population- 25% < experts predicted. 
  • Target set-1979 to limit population to 1200 million+reach 0 growth by 2000.1986 changed to 1300 million growth rate was 1.07%

Negative

  • Males seen as desirable, in 1982 girls:boys was 100:110. In 1990 rate rose to 100:111.7
  • Use of ultra sound, allows selective abortion,in 1990 there were 36.21 million> men than women
  • Dramatic rise in prostitution and buying/selling of women
  • 1989,5% population was over 65yrs. 2007,7% predicted that in 2025 approx 30% of pop 65yrs+
  • Less pensions
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

The way population changes and migration affects the character of rural and urban characters. 

Pop increase in urban areas

+more skilled workforce, increase in services/more varied cultural activities

-Increased population density and pressure on resources

-Potential ethnic tensions e.g. 2011 Toxteth riots, an inner city area in Liverpool

Pop decrease in urban areas

+less pressures on resources

-As people move out, less money spent/invested into the area leading to urban decline

-Services/amenities start to close down, area looks run down.

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Case Study: Rural and Urban area in the Wirral 

Rural- Burton

  • Pop= 1,620 in 2001, was 667 in 1951
  • Change from farming community to commuter village, resulted in loss of small village shops and services -butchers, post office etc.
  • Village structure has changed- more working age people
  • House prices increased, the counterurbanisation has resulted in local primary school staying open
  • Less need for public transport let to closing of train station. 

Urban- Birkenhead

  • Pop= 142,500 in 1951, 83,000 in 2001
  • Reduced service base, and unemployment higher here than other areas of Wirral.
  • Area has become run down and neglected, however there is lower house prices 
  • Densely populated, but has decreased since 1951
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Population Case Study

UK -aging population

Strategies

  • Increasing health care provisions- doesn't manage the pop change but helps ease problem
  • Encouraging more women to have children- working tax credits support women(+men), new pension proposal mean women won't lose out
  • Encouraging immigration of working age people- UK allowed unlimited immigration of people from EU in '04 (e.g.poland) -80% of immigrants that came to the UK from the new EU countries were 34 or less.

Problems

  • Social; -more elderly people living in poverty (working pop isnt large enough to provide better pensions) -Increased pressure on public services (greater demand for services like hospital/hospices. more people needed to care for elderly, more training needed) -Reduced pop growth
  • Economic; -Increased taxes, reduced work force, pressure on pension system (aren't enough working age people to pay a good pension for retired person.) -Today, 60% of pop pay taxes that go towards 19% of pop pensions. 
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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Population Case Study

Uganda- youthful population

Strategies

  • Policies to combat spread of HIV/AIDS:late 80's a programme of education called the ABC approach was used (ABSTAIN from sex until marriage,BE faithful to one another+use CONDOMS) HIV rates fell from 15% to 5% in 2001
  • Encouraging use of contraceptives and family planning-use among married women<25%, allow women to plan how many children they have.

Impacts

Social: -Pressure on the health services, around 6000 women have died each year in childbirth. -Unemployment could get much worse. In 2003, unemployment was 3.2%. However 50% of pop are -15yrs so weren't counted in these figures.

Economic: -Too few jobs for the young people when they grow up. -Increased poverty, more young born into already poor families  

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AS HUMAN GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION

Case Study; Inner city and Suburban Area

Birkenhead, Tranmere- Inner City

Housing type; terrace houses,v. close together, no personal space (back to back) GRID IRON PATTERN 

Ethnicity; catholic/christian etc -evidence is supported by churches

Age structure; young population, approx 10 schools.

Wealth; lower income earners -evidence is supported by terrace houses, cheaper

Provision of services; good infrastructure,hospital, trains etc

Hoylake- Suburban Area 

Housing type; detached, cul-de-sacs etc, own space, private land/parking, curved roads 

Ethnicity; catholic/christian

Age structure; older population

Wealth; higher income earners

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Comments

James Tilley

very helpful! :D

elinor

Very welcome!

Alex

Great! 

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