Patterns and change (population in transition, responses to high and low fertility)

Old dependents: anyone over the age of 65

Young dependents: anyone under the age of 15  

Economically active: people between the age of 15 and 65. These people are normally working and paying taxes (exceptions: some people stay in education until 21 and older, some are unemployed)

Ageing population: a rise in the median age of the populaiton usually associated with an increase in the proportion of old dependents

Ageing ratio: the proportion of people over the age of 65 compared to the total population

Dependency ratio: the ratio between dependents (old and young) and the economically active:

(dependent population/population of working age) x 100

A country' dependency ratio may increase for a number of reasons      -increasing life expectancy

-falling death rates and rising birth rates

-immigration of dependents and emigration of economically active

Impacts of an ageing population (i.e. Japan, whose total fertility rate is 1.39) The elderly have a lot of experience and can be valuable in the workplace

The young population is offered many jobs

Less money is spent on schooling and natal medical care

Lower crime rates and less money is spent on policing

There is an overall reduction in energy consumption

Shortage of economically active (increase in the dependency ratio)

Decline in the labor participation rate (in Japan, it is estimated to decline from 77 today to 71 by 2025) which could lead to the shrinking of the domestic market

Reduced taxation income for the government

Cost of providing healthcare and care homes (i.e. In Japan, the annual cost of medical care for the elderly was '8.3 times the cost of those between 14 and 44 years old) and pension costs

Service decline (schools, sport centers etc. isn't used by older residents)

Impacts of a youthful population They will provide a substantial working population when they enter the economically active group (contributing a lot of money in taxes which can be used to invest to improve the quality of life)

Attractive to new investments/ young people bring new ideas an innovations/ Educated and IT literate population

Lower medical costs than an ageing poplulation

Development of services such as schools, creches

The government may introduce family planning policies to reduce the birth rate

High education costs (+ teachers have to work 12 hours per day)

High dependency ratio (i.e. Gambia's youthful population created a dependecy ratio of 92.3%) on the short-term

Children are views as an economic asset to work in fields, and are often forced to work

High rates of unemployment

Big demands on the resources of the country, possibly leading to malnutrition

Rural to urban migration increases

Overcrowding and lack of sanitation (so, increase in the infant mortality rate)

Uganda's youthful population

-in 2007, 50% of the population was under 15 and only 3% were over 65. The population is becoming even more youthful

Reasons for Uganda's youthful population

1) High birth and fertility rates: every year, there are 48 babies born per 1000 people, and the fertility rate is on average 7

2) A low life expectancy of around 52 years

Negative impacts of this youthful population:

Overpopulation: the population currently stands at around 30 million, but is expected to grow to 56M by 2025, which could lead to:

-Pressure on health services: around 6000 women already die each year in childbirth. When the youthful population reaches the reproductive age, the pressure on the health services will be even greater (potentially leading to more deaths). The health system is already stretched because of AIDS. AIDS may spread even further when the population starts to have children , putting more strain on the health system

-Unemployment: in 2003, unemployment in Uganda was 3.2%, However, 50% of the population are under 15 so they aren't accounted for those figures. When this large youthful population reached working age, there won't be enough jobs for them all, which means that unemployment will rise further, causing poverty to increase

Singapore is a developed country (MEDC) in South-East Asia with a population of about 5 million people.

For many years the Singaporean government has believed that Singapore is under-populated and has tried to increase its population.

Singapore has one of the lowest total fertility rates in the world, standing at 1.1, which is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Already 36% of the Singapore population is made up of foreign nationals and in some sectors like industry, 80% of the workers are foreign.

 To overcome worker shortages, the Singapore government has encouraged immigration, but it is also trying to increase the population through raising birth rates. The government is doing this in a number of ways:

It has increased maternity leave by 50% to 12 weeks and it will cover the cost of maternity leave for the first four babies. This incentive means that parents do not have to worry about the security of their work if they decide to have children.

The Singapore government is also increasing child benefits paid to families. For example, the government will pay money into a special bank account of up to nearly $1000 for six years. By doing this, families do not need to worry about the costs of having children and can instead focus upon the benefits of family life.

The Singapore government has also sponsored dating organizations to encourage people to get married earlier and start having children.

Success of Singapore’s policy

Failures of Singapore’s policy

-Singapore’s population is projected to rise to 5.4M by 2025

-There were increased immigration levels

Proportion of permanent citizens increased from 74% to 83% from 2000 to 2009

-A slight rise in the total fertility rate to around 1.8/1.9 was experiences in the initial years following the policy

-Purely monetary policies are unlikely to work given as the man factor is changing social mindsets

-Increase in fertility was short-lived, and fertility/birth rates continues the general downward trend, despite additional incentives in 2001 and 2004

Population facts before the policy 

 When the policy was adopted, China’s population was about 972 million people.

 In 1963, the average Chinese woman had given birth to 7.5 children.

Broad base indicates that the biggest part of the population is young dependent.The narrow top also suggests poor medical health care and possibly, nutritional deficiency.The concave shape of the pyramid indicates a high death rate. The broad base of the pyramid indicated a low standard of living, limited access to birth control. More males than females.

During Mao Zedong’s rule, the population policy of China was ‘’the more people, the stronger we are’’: this led to overpopulation and consequently, a series of famines.

In 1970, late marriage was encouraged longer spacings between births (a 4-year gap) and fewer children.

 In 1979, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping limited all households to only one kid: China’s one-child policy was implemented. The target was to lower the birth rate in order to limit China’s population to 1.2 billion by 2000. 

How did they implement it?

 System of rewards, incentives, fines and punishments. Amongst them: Massive advertising campaign (billboards, slogans), Tax incentives for families with only 1 child, forced abortion, Free services for single children, with heavy fees for additional children, Neighbors being encouraged to report families or friends who are expecting to have more than 1 child.

Effects of the policy : During the 1970’s the average number of children per woman dropped from 6 to 2.5.

Facts after the policy: However, the rule has been estimated to have reduced population growth in the country of 1.3 billion by as much as 300 million people over its first twenty years.

Now, China’s average fertility rate is well below the replacement rate of 2/1 children per woman. It has even decreased to 1.5 per woman, and in developed urban areas, down to 1

Success of the policy? Problems linked to the policy?

The policy did manage to reduce the number of births: China claims that that their policy has averted roughly 400 million births.

Heavily criticized for taking away the rights of the individuals to choose their family size.

Isn’t fair to poor people, since the rich can have as many babies as they want, because they have the money to pay the penalty

Since boys have a higher status in China, the rule has caused a general disdain for female infants : abortions, neglect and even infanticide have occurred to female infants.

This led to a disparate ratio of 120 males: 100 females today, resulting in 20 to 30 million excess males.