Participation and Voting Behaviour

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What is politics?

  • ways decisions are made about government, state and public affairs
  • struggle for power and influencebetween competing individuals and groups
  • Resolving conflicts about how we organise our society is a POLITICAL PROCESS
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What is authority?

the ability to direct others because the MAJORITY accept it is their right

usually others obey and force is not needed

legitimate power based on respect and recognition

consent from those they govern; chosen in FREE ELECTIONS gives the AUTHORITY

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What is power?

ability to get things done by making others do what they would not do by free choice

ability to REWARD and PUNISH

enables rulers to serve or manipulate the people they rule

use in many authoritarian regimes

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What is democracy?

  • demo --> people
  • cracy --> power
  • "government of the people, by the people and for the people" Abraham Lincoln
  • system of government by the whole population or members of a state, typically through elected representatives

Features of democracy

  • free, regular elections
  • governing answerable to voters
  • freedom of speech, religion, association etc.
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Direct vs. Indirect Democracy

Direct democracy

  • citizens themselves assemble to debate and decide issues of public importance
  • vote on all decision made
  • e.g. Ancient Athens

Indirect democracy

  • representative democracy
  • people elect representatives to make decisions on their behalf
  • open and organised opposition
  • political apathy
  • majority rule
  • free & fair elections
  • law making by elected representatives
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What is pluralism?

  • "rule by many"
  • system of government that encourages participation and allows for free and fair competition between competing interests
    • DIVERSE AND COMPETING CENTRES OF POWER
    • NUMEROUS ACCESS POINTS
    • NO SINGLE GROUP EXCLUDES ANY OTHER
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What is Elitsim?

A few govern and the mass of people follow; electors cast their vote at election time, but have little say in between

society should be governed by an elite or small group; the few acting on behalf of many

deference --> defer to an elite "born to rule"

53% Theresa May's Cabinet attended private education

50% attended Oxbridge

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What is the electorate?

those people who are eligble and registered to vote in a given election

in 2015, 66.1% of the electorate turned out to vote

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What is Participation?

ways in which individuals engage in politics

actions of citizens by which they seek to influence or support the government

How do people participate?

Traditional

  • voting
  • communicating to MP or representative
  • Media
  • Becoming a party member

Newer methods

  • pressure groups
  • internet
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Political Apathy

lack of interest, enthusiasm or concern for political activities

  • decrease in turnout suggests an increase in apaty
    • 1950s= 83.9% ; 2015= 66.1%
  • Apathy particularly prominent among young
    • 2015 overall= 66.1% ; 18-24= 43%
    • Only 14& of 18-24 year olds said they will definitely vote on 8th June 2017
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Turnout

The percentage of registered voters who cast a ballot in a given election

In recent years, turnout has declined

  • 1950= 83.9% vs 2015= 66.1%

Varies according to variables such as age, gender, class and ethnicity

e.g. older more likely to vote

  • 2015= 66.1% ; 65+ = 78% ; 18-24 = 43%
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Increased political apathy

Nationally

  • 1950 = 83.9% ; 2015 = 66.1%

Young Voters

  • 2015: overall= 66.1% BUT 18-24 year olds = 43%
  • 2017 Polls = 14% 18-24 year olds definitely voting in GE

Local Elections

  • 2009= 42% BUT 2017= 36%
  • Manchester Mayoral Election= 29% in 2017

Political Party Membership

  • Conservative 1950= 3million ; 2016= c.150,000
  • Labour 1950= 1million ; 2016 = c.650,000
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No increase in political apathy

Recent rise in some political membership

  • Labour 2012= c.200,000 BUT July 2016= 515,000
  • SNP 2012= c.24,000 BUT July 2016= c. 120,000

Rise in pressure groups

  • Conserative Membership= 150,000
  • RSPB over 1.2 million and income over £50 million a year

Increase in digital democracy

  • In 2012, BBC reported that e-petitions had received 6.4 million signatures
  • Conservative Membership in 2012= 133,000
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Reasons for low turnout

DISILLUSION

  • dissatisfaction with politics and the main political parties
  • Too centrist
  • Number of people who trust politicians has declined
  • EU referendum lies; 2009 Expenses Scandal

DISENGAGED

  • people are withdrawing from politics
  • "safe seats" feel there is little point in voting because of foregone conclusion
  • Electoral Reform Society estimated in 2010 that 59% were safe seats

POLITICAL ALIENATION

  • due to elitism
  • c. 35% of MPs have attended fee-payings school (7% nationally)
  • 50% of May's Cabinet attended Oxbridge
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More reasons for low turnout

HAPATHY

  • voters abstain from voting because they are happy with the way in which they are governed
  • In 2005, 29% of people described themselves as "satisfied with democracy"

VOTER FATIGUE

  • people are required to vote too often and so become apathetic
  • In 2017 alone, Copeland has experienced by-election, local council elections and General Election
  • Mayoral elections in other areas-Manchester 2017= 29% turnout
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Abstention

  • voters are interested in political process but choose not to participate for many different reasons

HAPATHY: people abstain because they are happy with the status quo

29% did not vote in 2005 because they were "satisfied" with democracy

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Safe Seat

  • a consituency that is likely to be retained with a large majority in an election
  • In a General Election the same party tends to win
  • Parties often don't spend time or money on safe seats because they have no chance of winning.
  • According to the Electoral Reform Society, approximately 540 seats were safe in 2015
  • Safe seats can lead to complacency
    • In 2015, number of people that voted for SNP rose and Labour lost many of their "safe seats"
  • High profile, and leading, MPs are often put in safe seats
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Marginal Seats

  • a constituency held with a small majority
  • sometimes known as "swing seats"
  • According to the Electoral Reform Society, approximately 110 seats were marginal in 2015
  • Gower majority is 27
  • Parties focus their campaigns in marginal seats
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Sociological Factors

  • primacy factor
  • focus on the social characteristics of voters, particularly SOCIAL CLASS and their party loyalties
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Class

  • There used to be a strong link between CLASS and VOTING BEHAVIOUR
    • used to vote for their natural class party but lines have begun to BLUR

There is a slight trend

  • Wealthier are more likely to vote for the Conservatives
    • 44% of ABs (professional or managerial) voted for Conservatives
    • 20% of ABs voted for Labour
  • Poorer are more likely to vote for the Labour Party
    • 42% of DEs (semi-skilled, unskilled or benefit claimants) voted for Labour
    • 28% DEs voted for Conservatives
  • DEs are more likely to vote for UKIP in 2015
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Socialisation

  • social learning in the home (most people vote for the same party as their parents), workplace and neigbourhood
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Class Dealignment

  • the decline in the relationship between social class and voting
  • distinctions between social classes have been eroded by affluence, higher education and labour market
    • "old" working class has decreased
    • "new" working class are employed in private sector
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Reasons for Class Dealignment

  • clear distinctions between classes is breaking down
  • post-industrialist --> GB is no longer manufacturing country; especially since 1970
  • Bembourgoisement --> workiing class now aspire to be better off or in the middle class
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Partisan Dealignment

  • number of voters that strongly identifies with either Conservative or Labour has declined
    • 1964 --> 43%  //  2005 --> 13%
  • The core vote for both parties is smaller so they have to work to win over floating voters
  • Partisan Dealignment is shown through memership decline in the 2 party system
    • 1950s --> 90% Labour or Conservative
    • 2010 -->  65% Labour or Conservative
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Gender

  • post-war there has been a "gender gap" --> women more likely to vote Conservative than men
  • 1990s it changed --> women more likely to vote labour

2015 General Election

  • Men voted Conservative 
    • 38% Conservative // 30% Labour
  • Women also voted Conservative but MORE LIKELY TO VOTE LABOUR
    • 37% Conservative // 34% Labour
  • Younger women voted labour
    • 18-29 year olds = 41%
  • Men are more likely to vote UKIP (14%) than Women (12%)
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Age

  • Younger electorate (18-24 year olds) are more likely to vote Labour
    • 43% Labour // 27% Conservative IN 2015
  • 65+ more likely to vote Conservative
    • IN 2015 57% voted Conservative // 23% Labour
  • UKIP increased votes in 65+ = 17%
  • Political climate of period voters grew up in may shape long term outlook
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Ethnicity

  • White people are more likely to vote for Conservative = 39% in 2015
  • BME more likely to vote Labour
    • 68% voted for Labour // 16% voted for Conservative

NOT A HOMOGENEOUS GROUP

  • Indian Origins are more likely to vote conservative (24%) than Black people who are more likely to vote Labour (6%)
    • Indians are more affluent
    • Black are more likely to do manual work or be unemployed
  • 2005 Iraq War --> fall in Labour support with Muslim population
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Region

  • "north-south" divide --> conservative support highest in south (more affluent/ middle class)
  • Labour has more support in the North, Scotland and Wales --> distribution of social classes
  • Old-industrial (coal, steel) = LABOUR
  • increasing number of marginal seats
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Rational Choice Model

  • recency factor
  • focus on the actions of rational individuals who pursue their own interests

Issue Voting

  • compare party politices and vote for the party whose position is closest to their own
  • Focuses on issues on which the main parties offer different policies
    • manifesto and media

Valence Issues

  • main parties are in broad agreement so voters make judgement about a parties' competence
  • e.g. 1997, 2001 and 2005, Labour had a strong lead over the Conservatives on health, economy and education
  • RETROSECTIVE VOTING --> what they've already done in power
  • PROSPECTIVE VOTING --> what they will do
  • ECONOMIC VOTING --> likely to support the governing party if they delivered a healthy economy
    • decline in economic optimism after 2008 recession = more Conservative support?
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Dominant Ideology

  • recency factor
  • view that voters are influenced by the dominant ideas in the media
  • Newspapers --> Sun= the biggest selling daily newspaper
    • Blair in 1997 --> "It's the Sun wot won it"
    • Thatcher in 1980
  • Guardian --> Labour 62%
  • Sun --> 47% Conservative
  • Telegraph --> 69% Conservative
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TV and Radio

  • should be impartial as part of their license
  • TV --> Personality over policy
    • TV leadership debates
      • 2010= 3 debates
      • 1st debate --> 51% said Nick Clegg won --> more seats?
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Influence, Reinforment or Agenda Shaping?

INFLUENCE

  • Newspapers etc have a direct influence over voting behaviour of readers
    • The Sun --> 1997, 2010

REINFORCEMENT

  • Newspapers reinforce the views already held by readers.
  • Most people read a newspaper that reflect their view
    • 62% of Guardian readers vote Labour

AGENDA SHAPING

  • Newspaper coverage helps to shape the political agenda.
  • Coverage of crime/ immigration frames the way these issues are perceived by the electorate
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By-elections

  • election held outside of the cycle due to a constituency seat becoming vacant
  • usually due to death, resignation or retirement of the holder
  • As well as by-elections to Parliament, there are by-elections to other posts such as local councils
  • Copeland by-election on 23rd February 2017
    • Conservative Party won
    • first time since it was created in 1983
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