How has global population changed? Where are the changes taking place? Why is it difficult to predict future changes?
- Over a period of 100 years the population has and will carry on increasing.
- By 2050 it is predicted that the population will have increased by more that double what it was in 1950.
- Although the population has been predicted for the future, it is hard to predict exactly what will happen, this is because:
- people are constantly migrating out and in of countries.
-The death and birth rate has no certain pattern and can not be predicted.
-The natural increase is unpredictable.
What is the Demographic Transition Model? What does it tell us? What factors can influence Birth Rates and Death Rates?
Demographic Transistion Model
The Demographic Transistion Model shows:
- The 5 stages of population change, these are:
-Stage 1: The 'High Stationary' Stage. At this Stage Birth Rate is high, Death Rate is also high and the natural increase is small therefore it is growing slowly. A few remote groups are currently at this stage.
-Stage 2: The 'Early Expanding' Stage. At this stage Birth Rate fluctuates between 38 and 40 per thousand, Death Rate is dropping and natural increase in quite big therefore population is at a steadier speed. Egypt, Kenya and India are currently at this stage.
-Stage 3: The 'Late Expanding' Stage. At this stage Birth rate is dropping because there is improved medical care and diet meaning fewer children are needed for helping the family, as the adults can manage the work themselves. At this stage death rate is low because medical care is still improving therefore fewer people die. The natural increase is still large but shrinking because the increase is slowing down. Brazil is currently at this stage.
-Stage 4: The 'Low Stationary' Stage. At this stage Birth rate is low, this is because people are marrying later, leading to also having children later. Death rate is also low due to good health care and a reliable food supply. There is a steady natural increase at this stage and so far the lowest. This stage consisits of developed countries such as USA, Japan, France and the UK.
-Stage 5: The 'Declining' pretty much explains itself. The Birth rate is very low because of family planning and good health and death rate is also low (both factors are 'declining'), death rate is low because of a realiable food supply and good health. Germany is a country at this stage.