- Shows population, birth rate and death rate changes over five stages.
- STAGE 1- high birth and death rate flutuating. Populationi low, eg. Brazil.
- STAGE 2- death rate falls, birth rate high, population increases rapidly, eg Afghanistan.
- STAGE 3- birth rate declines, death rate falls slowly, population increases at slower rate, eg Egypt.
- STAGE 4- birth and death rate fluctuate at low level, population stable and high, eg USA.
- STAGE 5- birth rate declines, death rate stable, population decreases, eg. Japan. (Causes problems as few children, small population, fewer taxpayers).
- Useful: Easy to compare countries with DTM.
- Forecast how population might change- helps governments decide on policies eg OCP.
- Generalised picture.
- Limitations: Didn't originally include LEDCs.
- Only a model- not completely accurate.
- Expects all countries to develop at same time.
- Hard to predict political event.s
- Addded on stage 5.
History behind DTM
Stage 1 (until 1760): population small, due to poor diet and hygiene, wars and diseases like the Black death leading to high death rate.
Stage 2 (1760-1880):population grew quickly due to improvements in farming and medicine- decreasing starvation and death rate.
Stage 3 (1880-1940): Population growing at slower rate, as birth control used more decreasing birth rate. Death rate fell (except in WW1) as food and hygiene improved.
Stage 4 (1940-today): population growth slowed, death rate low (except in WW2), birth rate low (except from baby boom)
Stage 5 (today+): death rate same as birh rate- population ageing. Population could decline.
Stage 1: high birth and death rates, low life expectancy.
Stage 2: high birth rate, falling death rate, long life expectancy.
Stage 3: falling birth and death rate- more elderly.
Stage 4: low birth and death rates, high life expectancy, lots of elderly.
Stage 5: birth rate drops below death rate, population decreases.
- Movement of people between or within countries.
- Immigration is movement of people into a country.
- Emigration is movement of people out of a country.
- From rural to urban areas affects number of young adults, as they move away to city to find a job: rural-urban migration. This affects birth rate.
Emigration away from countries:
- At later stage of DTM decreases population, eg elderly people moving as they retire will decrease number of elderly.
Immigration into countries:
- At later stage of DTM (MEDC) into LEDC increases population of working and reproductive age. Increases population of young and birth rate.
Push factors: make people want to move out of place they are in, are negative factors eg lack of jobs.
Pull factors: attract people to a new place, are positive factors eg beter jobs and living conditions.
Dependency Ratio & Impacts of Ageing Population
- Proportion of population that has to be supported by working population.
- High dependency ratio = greater proportion of dependent people.
- Dependency ration = (young people + old people) / working age population
Impacts of ageing population
- Increased pressure on public services eg hospitals. More carers and nurses needed.
- Unequal distribution of eldery, may have inadequae facilities for young population.
- Reduced population growth/decline- fewer children as have to look after old parents, reducing birth rate.
- Longer working life- state pension is low and not enough support, work beyond retirement age.
- Reduced work force- smaller proportion working, slow economic growth.
- Increased taxes- pensions paid by taxes, more people claiming taxes.
- Spending- elderly have to spend savings and pensions.
Impacts of Youthful Population & Management
- Social: Increased pressure on public services eg schools.
- Rapid population growth- overpopulation.
- Economic: Few jobs- increase in unemployment, dependent on government support.
- Increased poverty- have to work to support family, no schooling, born into poor familes.
Strategies to manage youthful population:
- Control birth rate- policies to limit birth, eg One Child Policy.
- Limit immigration of young- are of reroductive age, not made higher from immigrants having children.
- Family planning and contraception- governments offering sex education, free contraception.
Strategies to manage ageing population:
- Encouraging larger families- giving paid leave when they have children.
- Raising retirement age- working population made larger, larger contribution to state pension.
- Encouraging immigration of working age people- contribute to taxes.
Case Study- UK is Ageing Population
- Increasing life expectancy- from 1980 to 2006 rose by 4 years for men.
- Baby booms- lots of babies born in 1940s after war.
- Falling birth rate.
- Pressure on pension system- number of people paying taxes towards pensions is decreasing.
- More elderly living in poverty- state pension isn't enough.
- Pressure on health care- need more medical care.
- Retirement age increased to 68 for everyone by 2050.
- Encouraging immigration of working age- UK has unlimited immigration from countries in EU.
- Encouraging more children- women don't lose out on pensions due to career break.
Theories of Population
Boserup and Simon 1965:
- Crop shortages lead to innovation in farming, production and consumption.
Thomas Malthus 1798:
- Population growth is exponential, resource growth is arithmetc, food supply can't keep up with pop.
- Will be a point of crisis, eg famine unless pop growth controlled
Club of Rome 1972:
- 'Limits to Growth' book published- computed model.
- Limits to growth met in about 100 years, result in a decrease in pop.
- Trends can be altered to prevent pop decline and industrial stagnation.
Carrying capacity- how many people can live sustainable within a given area.