in the 1980s Japan was economically destined for superpower status
per capita GDP was higher than the UK and USA by 1980 and it was a world leader in exporting consumer electronics, ICT, cars and industrial machinery to the rest of the world
in the 1990s economists expected Japan's economy to continue to grow but this did not happen
Japan's economy has barely grown at all since 2005 but is now two lost decades
a property value bubble burst in 1989-90 which led to a collapse in the Japanese stock market
high interst rates of 4 -6% encouraged saving not spending so the economy slowed
Japan's ageing population quickly became a problem, slowing the economy further
more competitive Asian economies e.g. South Korea and then China, stole Japan's lead on hi-tech consumer goods
Japan warns us that predicting the economic power of countries in the future is really just educated guesswork
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Arctic oil and gas
the US Geological Survey estimates that 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 13% of oil resources are in the Arctic
amounts to 90-100 million barrels of oil worth billions of dollars
dispute areas around whether an area of ocean bed known as Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of Russia's continental shelf
3 parties in dispute have nuclear weapons (Russia, USA and EU)
in 2007 the Russians used a submarine to place a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole which made tensions worse
number of scientific expenditions to the Arctic has increased as countries seek to have a greater presence in the area
both Russia and Canada have created dedicated 'Arctic Forces' to protect their interests
tensions are likely to rise further as global warming makes the Arctic increasingly accessible to shipping for longer periods of the year, and oil and mineral exploration becomes easier
as oil reserves run out Arctic oil will look increasingly tempting
UN will decide whose claims stand and whose do not
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Russia's western border
1991 - collapse of communism and the independence of former Soviet republics, several newly independent countries in this sphere has raised the possibility of joining the EU and/or NATO
increased tensions between western Europe and Russia have implications for people and economics
EU and US economic sanctions following the 2014 Ukraine/Crimea crisis have isolated Russia economically but also affected EU exporters who can no longer sell to Russia - Russian consumers have also suffered as imports have dried up
open conflict in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Georgia led to the forced displacement of tens of thousands of people as well as hundreds of deaths
NATO deployed additional air and ground forces to its eastern border in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
speculation from political commentators of a new Cold War between Russia and the Western allies has increased since 2008
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South and East China seas
China has stated its sphere of influence in South East Asia in a policy referred to as the Island Chain Strategy
China is actively pursuing a policy of controlling the ocean from its coast to the First Island Chain
it launched its first aircraft carrier in 2012 and plans 2 more by 2020
policy has problems
many rocks, islands and areas of continental shelf in the South and East China seas are dirsrupted
areas are militarily important to China in terms of defending what it sees as ocean areas it should control
largest naval presence in the area at the moment is the USA due to its close allies Japan, South Korea and the Philippines
islands could be economically important as they may harbour oil and gas reserves
China's recent strategy in the area has been to occupy deserted islands and to artificially build largely or even new islands especially in the Spratly Islands
2014 - China began constructing an airport on reclaimed land
2015 - China began the construction of a port and possibly an airport
2015 - some reefs appeared to be being developed into a Chinese military base
China's actions - 'Great Wall of Sand' - new island bases are built of sand
'Nine-dashed line' - reference to Chinese maps delimiting the area of claimed control in the South China Sea using nine dashes
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