Family 6 - Demographic trends

21st century: UK growth rate around 0.25% per year.

Main factor: natural change - the difference between births and deaths. Since 1901 there have been more births than deaths every year apart from 1976.

Since the late 1990s an important factor has been immigration.

Actual numbers: there has been a decline in the actual number of live births in the UK.

Birth rate: the number of live births per thousand of the population per year. It has fallen steadily since 1900.

Total fertility rate: the average number of children that a woman would have during her lifetime. It has declined since 1940. It peaked in 1964 (baby boom) - 2.95 - and reached a record low in 2001 - 1.63. In 2006 it was 1.84.

Actual number: despite the large population growth, it has remained fairly steady since 1901.

Death rate: the number of deaths per thousand of the population per year. It has fallen from 18.4 in 1900-2 to 9.4 in 2005. When the population grows steadily and there is little change in the actual number of deaths the death rate will fall.

Infant mortality rate: the number of deaths of infants under one year per thousand live births. It has fallen dramatically from 142 (25% of deaths) in 1901 to 5.1 (less than 1% of deaths) in 2005.

It is the number of years a person can expect to live based on data from a particular year. It has grown since 1901; in 2003-5 it was 76.6 years for males and 81.0 for females.

The population of the UK is ageing: from 1971 to mid-2006 the population over 65 grew by 31% whereas the population under 16 declined by 19%. People are living longer and women are having fewer children.

The total fertility rate is used as a rough indicator of family size; as it has fallen since 1900, so has family size.

Today the most common family size is two children. (link: evidence of nuclear family)

Childlessness has increased in recent years. (link: family diversity)

• Advances in medicine
• Free school meals (1902; 1914)
• School medical examinations (1907)
• National Insurance Act (1911): sickness benefits for low-wage workers
• Decline in absolute poverty in the first half of the 20th century
• Healthy diet (Livi-Bacci, 2007)

Criticism: The decline in mortality had begun before the introduction of modern medicinal treatments.

Women are having fewer or no children because they cannot afford to.

People are having fewer or no children as a result of individualisation: children restrict adults' freedom and are a source of risk for adults in a "risk society".

Educational and occupational trends for women explain the decline in fertility rate.

This longitudinal study shows that women's attitudes to marriage and children are changing: women have become more independent and career-orientated. There is no longer a stigma on singlehood and childlessness.