energy security case studies

different types of energy.

nuclear-     Austrlia has world leading reserves of uranium, followed by Brazil and Canada, this could help them become a nuclear power and would provide sustainable energy 
Europe and Eurasia are the largest consumers of nuclear, 275million oil equivalent tonnes are used by the region, follwed by North America and Asia Pacific 
natural gas-        russia has the largest amount of resources, 47570billion metres cubed, iran second, gas consumption is highest in europe and eurasia again with 1000 billion cubic metres used 
oil-      Saudi arabia has the largest reserves, 261.9 billion barrels about 25% world resources, consumption per capita is 3 tonnes in usa and saudi, by 2040 production could be 15million barrels per day, half of what we currently consume although population will be more oil dependant 
coal-        USA has 25% world coal reserves, asia 30%, coal consumption is huge in asia pacific, particularly due to chinas massive use 
HEP-        Asia pacific massive increase in this energy form, now consumer around 250million tonnes oil equivalent per year, around the same as europe and eurasia 

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UK energy security

2011, energy production came from natural gas, 41%, coal 29%, nuclear, 18%, renewables 9% and other 2%
Gas imports will hit 70pc of supply by 2020
Some winters seriously threatened due to loss of coal imports and EU enviornmental standrads meaning that powerstations eg ferrybridge have been shut down, as a result less energy is created and the UK energy surplus is at around about 2%

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India and China

-   China is aggressively developing solar and India’s Suzlon is one of the world leaders in wind. China’s goal is to get 15% of its electricity from New Energy by 2020. India intends to get 10% by 2012

-     west will not allow china to develop clean energy as it will give the economy and increase
-      china and india nuclear programmes uneasy with other nations 
-      USA attempted to put in place 15% by 2020 clean energy target but withdrew it saying south eastern states could not do it, advantage china? 
-      energy demand between two countries is massive, china will import as much oil as USA by 2030, india will import as much as EU 
-      Both countries making deals with governments shunned by west EG venuzuela

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energy pathways

energy is poorly matched with supply and demand and therefore has to be exported. 
huge amounts of piplines come from saudi arabia and the middle east 
gas pipeline disruption has occured in russia and EU before due to ukraine disputes, this halted gas supplies and russia will continue to have power as it has 25% world gas reserves 
Choke points in the transportation of gas include; Panama canal, straits of gibralter, suez, bab el mandeb, straits of hormuz and malacca
somali pirates has struck many times in the indian ocean, they have siezed many liners and attempt to disrupt global oil supply
the UK is so dependant on uninterrupted supplies that it could lead to higher cost, pressure on politiians, civil distribution, rising industyr costs, political conflict

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energy hotspots

Middle east is a key player, holding 71% world oil, this could increase to 83% by 2025 and they currently supply 76% japanese oil along with 26% european oil
saudi alone has 25% world oil 
conflict between middle east and the west is common as oil was exploited without royalties to governments, even the borders of the middle east were decided by europeans after ww1 
currently in the middle east there are threats from iran due to nuclear and conflict with the USA, abqaiq oil refinery terrorist attacks, iraq and afgan wars while kashmir tensions still exist. 

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unconventional sources

tar sands- technically not huge challenge and can be fairly easily accessed, however this is energy intensive and the oil and sands have to be split which destroys ecosystems and required huge amounts of energy
arctic oil- technically low challenge, moderate enviornmental impact even in fragile enviornment, impacts coudl come later eg global wamring 
USA shale- moderate technical challenge, can be easily done, however high enviornmental impact with large mining areas and energy intensive production along with water pollution and other types of degradation. 
west of shetland islands- technically extremely challenging due to depth which requires floating rigs, low risk of environmental impact however with limited ecosystem problems 

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energy uncertainty

factors contributing- future economic performance, scale of pop growth, impacts of rising living standards, emergent economies demand, size of undiscovered fields, unconventional contribution, scale of renewable switch, new tech
peak oil may have been reached, which will mean declining production and rising prices 
OPEC and russia will have increasingly concentrated resources which means they can hold countries to ransom

Future demand is uncertain – it partly depends on future population and economic growth 

The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, is unknown 

The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil (see image

The extent and timing of switching from fossil fuel to renewables is uncertain. 

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stability of supply is the main aim, however increasing competition is occuring between oil and gas producers
main scenarios are: 
business as usual- unsustainable growth, rise to 84% coal use, oil increase to 1.4bn barrels per day, may have reached peak oil 2015, climate change could cost 5-20% world GDP, economic output cut by 3% due to lost crop yields 
nuclear- France world leader, 76% electrcity, however world wide it only accounts for 2% energy needs, advantages include large output, constant power, little space however cons include distrust, cost, build times waste disposal, terrorism, proliferation and challenge technically
renewables- problems with geography of places preventing usage 
biofuels- common in brazil, 50% petrol came from bioethanol, technology could move onto algae, however food price explosions have been blamed on biofuels 

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factors affecting security

level of domestic resources- Countries eg japan and italy rely on imports 
domestic renewable potential- Small, populated countries will have difficulty finding space eg singapore and S.Korea
Domestic energy mix- france relies heavily on nuclear, UK gas 
import risk- choke points pose real threat to imports from middle east 

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risks of disruption

Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009 Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% of oil)

Disruption to narrow ocean choke points could be a problem for middle eastern exports 

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Key players

TNC's - super oil companies control 95% world oil and gas reserves, OPEC acts as cartel with price making power 
Governments- National energy mix, renewable policy, green subsidies 
Lobbyists- Pressure for renewables, carbon density
Scientists- research alternative fuels and use
Consumers- price sensitive and can exert pressure to see change

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France and nuclear

Nuclear provides 15% world electricity, but only 2% energy needs, this comes from 400 reactors in 30 countries 

France- 76% electricity is nuclear, using 59 power stations 
EDF are world leaders
they have also invested in hinkley point 

Advantages- uranium easily avaliable, low life cycle, constant output, little space taken, larger output per plant 

disadvantages- public distrust, cost, builiding takes time, level of difficult waste, terrorism, proliferation, technically challenges 

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BRAZIL- after 1973 crisis brazil attempted to increase energy security by using bioethanol from sugar cane
By 2008 50% petrol was bioethanol, pure oil based petrol is not sold now
however this requires stocks such as sugar cane and maize which means there is less for food production, this is blamed for the 2007/08 food price boom
Biofuels are also not carbon neutral due to cost of farming, producing and transporting 

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future challenges

reduce dependancy on fossil fuels, increase renewable use, reduce GHG's, increase energy access in developing world

This can be done by- 
Mixing it up- renewables to diversify, increase security and reduce GHG's 
technology- Aid to develolp renewables, intermediate tech key in developing world as they want energy without GHG's 
Tax- green tax to encourage efficiency, tax dirty fuels 
self generation- Homes use renewables such as heat pumps, microwind/solar, helps to diversify and increase self dependance 

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