Global warming will intensify the monsoon in the same way as it is boosting the power/nuber fo storms globally. Monsoon rains are more intense from 1981-2000 than they were in the 1950's and '60's and their frequency has increased 10% since the then, with sever rain frequency doubling over the same period
THis may benefit people who heavily rely on the monsoon to supporrt their argiculture. However, they are perilous, causing landsldides and flashfloods. In 2002, surging floodwaters in the monsoon killed 800 people in Bangladesh, India and Nepal, dispalcing millinos of people. Floodng will also lead to crop damage with drastic effects on agriculture and food security. In 1994, the Un's IPCC warned that global warming could intensify adn increase the variability of the monsoon and recent analysis of the Indian climate has revelaed that monsoons rains are getting heavier.
By 2100, India will experience a 3-5dc temperature increase and 20% rise in all summer monsoon rainfall. In other areas of India, drougght will occur as the climate pattersn change. Changes to the water cycle, particularly in regions strongly influenced by water based ecosystems, could also cause an increase in water bourne diseases such as Cholera and Malaria
Knock on Effects
There will be knock-on effects elsewhere. Severe drougght conditions will increasingly encroach into the southern parts of Australia and west Indonesia as moisture is drawn away from Southern regions to feed the monsoon. THe spread of drouguht is most damaging in summer when agriculture is most vulnerable - secondary effects might include food shortages and wildfires.
Effects on the British Isles
...most changes tend to focus on speculation about a new, more mediterranean climate. In reality, its likely to be more varied as Britain's climate is affected by its location on the edge of Europe and influence of the North Atlantic Drift.
- The total number of cold days has fallen from 15-20% per rear prior to the 20th century to only 10% per year in recent years.
- 4 out of 5 warmest years recorded were in the 1990s
- THe 1990s was the warmest decade of the last millenium and 1998 was the warmest year globally - 2006 was the warmest year on record. 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years
The annual average temeprature ooks set to rise by 2-3.5dc by the 2080's, with the south and east of the UK experiencing the largest rise. Most of the warming will be in summer and autumn, where temperatures in the south-east could rise by as much as 4/5dc on average. Precipitation in winter could increase by 10-35% but the summer will see less precipitation than we see now, a reduction could be 30-35%. The largest changes are predicted for the Southern and eastern parts of England and smallest changes in Northwest Scotland. Snow may delcine 60% in Scotland and 90% elsewhere
Effects on the British Isles
- Greater soil moisture deficit in summer will affect the type of crops/trees that can survive
- Loss of native species especially combined with less rainfall - plants could grow further north but cereals could be hit by drier summers
- A longer grrowing season - more grass for dairy and beef cattle
- More mild winters and longer, warmer, drier summers - more pests and disease but also benefits the tourism industry
- reduced snow cover in winter -> less skiing
Wetter Winters, Rise in Sea Level, Gales and Storm Surges:-
- Benefits water supplies
- more losses due to storms and flooding
- more flooding especially in estuaries
- Major impact on housing, industry, farming, energy, transport and wildlife