First 392 words of the document:
LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FACTORS
1. Party Identification
Citizens identify with a particular party and loyalties are formed. There is a strong term
2. Social Class
Identity with a particular social group
Pulzer: "Class is the basis of British politics, all else is embellishment and detail"
3. Other factors relating to social structure
Age, Gender, Region, Occupation, Religion
Region has been suggested as being a factor with the North-South divide. Conservatives
do the best in South whilst Labour the North.
1. The Economy
This is simply if the economy is `happy' and often relates to inflation, unemployment and
disposable income. Governments often like to `go to the country' at times when the
economy is good in the hope of being re-elected.
Q Nick Clegg to a party conference in Brighton "Our journey from austerity to prosperity
starts, of course, with economic rescue; dealing with our debts and delivering growth."
2. Personal Qualities and Appeal of Party Leaders
This is increasingly important with the influence of the mass media.
Q Columnist John Rentoul "Boris has the beginnings of a Churchillian stature about
him. He now has the size of personality that is waiting for a crisis that will summon him to
Lead to the writing of "Charisma: Why Obama will beat Romney" by an American
Professor, Mark Taylor.
3. Effectiveness of Party Campaigning
The style is changing frequently, for example, Labours `Do it' video campaign in 1997.
4. Events leading up to an Election
Events can have influence as it can decide what is in the public mind at the time of voting,
especially via the media.
E.g. Before the Rotherham by-election there was increasing media coverage about the
UKIP foster care case and was even discussed on national TV program Question Time. UKIP
then came third in the by-election which was one of their highest results ever.
Labours handling of the Iraq war seriously damaged their reputation and how
trustworthy Tony Blair really was. Whereas for Margaret Thatcher, the Falklands War only
boosted her reputation.
Q Howard Macmillan: "events, dear boy, events"