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Events and outcome
1.) A trial is the act of testing/ doing something.
2.) Outcomes are the possible results of a trial.
3.) An event is a set of one or more successful outcomes.
The meaning of probability
4.) Probability is a numerical measure of the chance of an event happening.
A probability of 0 means it is impossible for the event to happen
A probability of 1 means the event is certain to happen
5.) Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals or percentages.
6.) When something is chosen at random, it means it is selected without a
7.) When outcomes have the same chance of happening they are called equally
The probability of an event
8.) If all possible outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event
=number of successful outcomes/total number of possible outcomes
9.) The estimated probability that an event might happen
=number of successful outcomes/total number of trials
10.) As the number of trials increase in experiments and surveys the nearer an
estimate for the probability should be to the true value.
11.) Simulation is the imitation of the conditions of a situation by a theoretical
12.) Cost of risk insurance= money at risk x risk assessment (p)
13.) A list of all possible outcomes is called a sample space.
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A Venn diagram represents a sample space and may be used to calculate
probabilities. Set =s are represented as circles and common elements of the set
are represented by the areas where the circles overlap.
Mutually exclusive events
15.) Outcomes/ events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the
16.) For two mutually exclusive events, A and B
P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B)
17.) The addition law can be extended for three or more mutually exclusive
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26.) A tree diagram can be used to make calculations easier. Each branch of
the tree represents an outcome. The probability of thee outcome is written on the
27.) Sometimes one branch of a tree may end earlier than others.
28.) Conditional probability is the probability of A given that B has already
It is written as P(A/B)
Multiplication law for events that are not independent