Advantages and Disadvantages of the DTM

Created by: Bethany
Created on: 02-04-13 19:12


	Advantages and Disadvantages of the DTM
	Advantages It is a universal concept that can be applied to all countries in the world. It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time (birth rates, death rates, total population.) The timescale of each stage is flexible. For example the UK took over 100 years to complete stage 2, as social, economic and technological changes were introduced gradually and death rates fell slowly. It enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries.	Disadvantages The original model did not include the fifth stage (decline) as this was not noted until the 1960s in some Western European countries. It is based on Europe, and presumed that all countries will follow the sequence of socioeconomic changes experience there. This may not prove to be the case. For example in less developed countries, there appears to be a much steeper fall in death rates than experienced in more developed countries. Birth rates are also generally higher in stages one and two. It does not include the impacts of migration. It does not include the role played by governments, for example the government sponsored, nation-wide, family planning program in Malaysia has reduced birth rates faster than the model would suggests. Also the China introduced the one-child policy, forcing it into stage three.
	Evaluation The DTM is a simple method of comparison between different countries, and enables us to quickly and easily estimate the stage of development of a country over time. On the other hand, the DTM is less useful for modelling socioeconomic changes in the less developed world, as it is very Eurocentric, assuming all countries will follow this path. This is not true, as in developing countries, there is a weaker relationship between population change and economic development, due to governments playing a more decisive role in the management of population. Overall, this means that the model must be used with caution, especially when studying less developed countries.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the DTM

Advantages

It is a universal concept that can be applied to all countries in the world.
It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time (birth rates, death rates, total population.)
The timescale of each stage is flexible. For example the UK took over 100 years to complete stage 2, as social, economic and technological changes were introduced gradually and death rates fell slowly.
It enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries.

Disadvantages

The original model did not include the fifth stage (decline) as this was not noted until the 1960s in some Western European countries.
It is based on Europe, and presumed that all countries will follow the sequence of socioeconomic changes experience there. This may not prove to be the case. For example in less developed countries, there appears to be a much steeper fall in death rates than experienced in more developed countries. Birth rates are also generally higher in stages one and two.
It does not include the impacts of migration.
It does not include the role played by governments, for example the government sponsored, nation-wide, family planning program in Malaysia has reduced birth rates faster than the model would suggests. Also the China introduced the one-child policy, forcing it into stage three.

Evaluation

The DTM is a simple method of comparison between different countries, and enables us to quickly and easily estimate the stage of development of a country over time. On the other hand, the DTM is less useful for modelling socioeconomic changes in the less developed world, as it is very Eurocentric, assuming all countries will follow this path. This is not true, as in developing countries, there is a weaker relationship between population change and economic development, due to governments playing a more decisive role in the management of population. Overall, this means that the model must be used with caution, especially when studying less developed countries.

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Advantages and Disadvantages of the DTM