essay trend fertility and mortality

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  • With ref to global trends, explain factors influencing fertility and mortality trends across the world
    • Global trends Fertility
      • Vary from 6.8 Burundi and Angola to 1.3 Germay
      • Higher in LEDC than MEDC
        • Africa highest at most of sub saharan Africa greater than 5
      • MEDCS TFR close to or below replacement level
      • S and C America, India, Indonesia, S Africa and parts of Central Asia TFR- 2.2-2.9
    • Global Trends Mortality
      • Diff between LEDC and MEDC less clear
      • MEDCs DR= 2-9/000 lowest in Australia. Higher in NAmerica, W Europe (aging populations)
      • Russia E Europe (former communist countries) 13-29/000. econ. diffs
      • Low in S and Central America and S and E Asia
      • High in Africa. Esp. SSAfrica
    • Population change in MEDCS
      • Europe
        • Ageing population. Rising DR. Europes pop from 736mil decline to 685mil by 2050.
        • Large Outmigration E Europe
        • Pro natallist policies Sweden TFR from 1.6 to 1.9 1999-2008. Also in France, Italy UK, Finland and Spain
      • N America and Oceania
        • Immigrants- major role in TFR
      • East Asia
        • Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan- very low TFR . Japan 1.3. High ageing population. 2050 40% pop over 65yrs in Japn
    • Population Change in LEDCs
      • Africa and Middle East
        • Highest Fertility. Potential for furture growth. Youthful pop. TFR 4.9 but for SSAfrica 5.4.
        • SSAfrica- worlds highest DR 15/000. 43% under 15years
        • North Africa and Middle East TFR decreased due to later marriages and family planning
      • Latin America and the carribean
        • pop will continue to grow but more slowly than in Africa
        • 2008 pop 577million- predicted to reach 778million by 2050
        • TFR currently just over replacement rate at 2.5
        • Death rates are low 6/1000
      • Asia
        • Pop currently 4billion- will increase by 1.4billion between 2008 and 2050
        • Even with anti-natalist policy pop will continue to grow. because of  youthful population
        • average DR 7/1000. Indoa TFR 3.6, China 1.6 so will surpas China as fastest growing pop in next 50 years


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