Why Obama won in 2012

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  • Why Obama won in 2012
    • Why he shouldn't have won
      • 'Broken promises'?
        • A number of commitments he had made in 2008 had not happened
          • Didn't close Guantanamo Bay detention centre
      • The economy was in a mess
        • Unemployment had gone up from 7.8% to 10% in his first year and came down to 7.9% in 2012
        • Prices of essential goods like oil had gone up
        • He had poor approval rating - 52% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy
      • Was America on the 'right track'?
        • In 2012 only 46% of Americans said the country was on the right track and 52% said the wrong track
      • His personal approval rating was poor
        • In 2012 Obama's rating was only 46.8 which made it very difficult for him to re elect
    • Why he did win
      • He was the incumbent
        • It is easier to win if incumbent only 5 Presidents in the 20th century were not re elected
        • He had no primary upsets behind him and a united Democratic Party
      • Early negative campaigning
        • Romney was portrayed as a cheating and tax dodging chief executive of a company and this negative image stuck
        • In one week Obama spent $1.2 million on negative ads which were played 1,947 times in the swing state of Ohio
      • Obama's campaign was superior
        • Got Democrat supporters to register to vote helped gain more voters
        • Organisation and getting the vote out
          • In the Spring of 2012 Obama had more campaigning offices in local areas than all the Republican nominees put together
          • He concentrated on swing states, in FloridaObama 106 offices and Romney 53 offices
      • The Romney factor
        • Gaffes
        • Lack of clarity
          • Campaigned in primaries as right wing then later went on to be more centre and became known as moderate Mitt
        • Character
          • He was never at ease and came across as awkward and lacking in communication skills, looked uneasy and his Mormon religion may also have been a factor
      • Obama's support from Clinton and Bush
        • Clinton made the keynote speech at party convention and is a superb campaigner
        • Many supporters blamed Bush for the economical crisis not Obama
      • Hurricane Sandy
        • It took Romney off the headlines for 3 days
        • As president Obama had to deal with the crisis and stayed in the news and looked statesmanlike
        • 64% of voters said this was a reason for voting for him
      • Gender
        • Women voted for Obama and he held an 11 point lead on women whereas Romney won the male vote by 7 points
          • Republicans views on abortion and equal rights lost them the female vote
      • Race
        • Hispanics turned against Romney because of his strict immigration policies, 71% voted for Obama
        • He beat Romney by 11 points with the Asian vote and 93% of African Americans voted for Obama


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