- Why did Obama win in 2012?
- Moderate philosophy made social conservative support less enthusiastic
- Forgot they had to give people a reason to vote for Romney, rather than against Obama
- Verbal gaffes- 47% remark most notably
- Changed from conservative to moderate between primaries and Presidential election
- Early Advantage
- Before Romney had the opportunity to introduce himself, Obama derided his opponent.
- Significant use of negative ad- spent $1.2 million on them in the 3rd week of July alone which aired 1947 times in Ohio.
- Turned an election which should have been a referendum on Obama's economic policies into a referendum on Romney's character.
- Better Campaign
- Ran by far the better campaign in terms of voter registration, organisation, use of money and get-out-the-vote effort
- Started early and was always ahead in terms of organisation
- Spring 2012- Obama had more field offices open than all his potential Republican rivals combined
- Summer-106 open in Florida compared to Romney's 52
- Summer-131 open in Ohio, compared to Romney's 40
- African American Share of vote in Ohio increased from 11% in 2008 to 15% (96% of African Americans voted Obama)
- Hispanic share of vote in Florida increased from 14% in 2008 to 17% (60% of Florida Hispanics voted Obama)
- He was an Incumbent
- Only 5 sitting presidents since the beginning of the 20th century have lost re-election races.
- Also had a completely united party behind him and no real primary challenge. Almost impossible to defeat a President under these condiions
- October Surprise
- Hurricane Sandy
- Allowed Obama to be the focus of media attention and seen in a presidential role
- High profile Republican Christie gave Obama credit
- Two Former Presidents
- Clinton was a very effective campaigner for Obama- his speech at the convention was better than Obamas
- A majority of voters (53%) blamed Bush for economic problems
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