Analysis of Voting Behaviour
- Created by: abi_ireland_foster
- Created on: 30-12-18 12:18
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- Valence voting (following attitudes towards parties at elections)
- Voting Behaviour
- Rational Choice (Identification of 'salient issues' (very important) at stake in elections)
- Salient issues in all UK general elections:
- - state of NHS
- - state of economy
- - state of education
- - immigration issues
- - trends in crime, law order
- - immigration issues
- - state of education
- - state of economy
- - state of NHS
- Salient issues 2017:
- - Brexit
- - how to fund social care for elderly
- - future of UK's nuclear capability
- -regulation /public ownership of 'big business'
- - Tax burden distribution amongst income groups
- - amount of protection for workers again poor employment practices
- - extent to which govt should 'spend and borrow' to economic growth, instead of concentrate on financial responsibility and reduction of public-sector debt
- - amount of protection for workers again poor employment practices
- - Tax burden distribution amongst income groups
- -regulation /public ownership of 'big business'
- - future of UK's nuclear capability
- - how to fund social care for elderly
- - Brexit
- Salient issues in all UK general elections:
- Issue Voting (voters concentrating on one single issue/group of related issues
- Instrumental voting: what voter thinks will be best in their own interests i.e. which party will reduce my taxes? Which will give me job security?
- Expressive voting: voter thinks of good of all community, i.e. which party has best environmental policies/law and order position/foreign policy?
- Partisanship and voting attachment
- Class dealignment leading to partisan dealignment
- growing middle class
- declining working class//growingnumber of C2s see themselves as middle class
- UKIP taken many working class voters from Labour
- working class voters in Scotland moved to SNP
- Parties had tended to adopt centrist policies
- 2017, Labour adopted radical left wing position to mobilise trad. voters
- Growing support for smaller parties
- Party membership fallen, few committed party supporters
- Exception of Labour membership recovery 2016// as of 2018, has 540,000 members
- Class dealignment leading to partisan dealignment
- Turnout
- Level of turnout influences outcome of elections. Different demographics demonstrate different turnout levels. Young vote in lower numbers than over 65s. Higher income vote more than low.
- 2017: 54% 18-24 y/o 71% 65+
- 2017: 76% AB 65% DE
- Level of turnout influences outcome of elections. Different demographics demonstrate different turnout levels. Young vote in lower numbers than over 65s. Higher income vote more than low.
- Party leaders
- Rational Choice (Identification of 'salient issues' (very important) at stake in elections)
- Governing competency: does party appear decisive? Did govern well when last in power? Strength, decisiveness, sensitivity to public opinion.
- Problem for Labour 2010
- Overspent between 1997 and 2010, left the country in deficit. When asked if he thought Labour overspent, Miliband responded "no I don't". They learnt nothing from financial crash.
- Problem for Lib Dems 2015
- 2010 manifesto, promised to abolish tuition fees by 2016. Went into coalition, voted for higher tuition fees.
- Problem for Labour 2010
- Economic Competence:How well did party manage economy last time in power? Do current leaders and policies inspire trust and suggest reliability?
- Labour lost confidence on economic management after financial crash of 2008
- Conservatives developed positive reputation on such competence, helped them in 2017
- Labour lost confidence on economic management after financial crash of 2008
- How united is party? Voters trust united parties as opposed to disunited ones.
- Conservatives lost elections 2001 and 2005 as party internally divided.
- Labour 2017 internally divided i.e. Brexit.
- Voting Behaviour
- 1970: 85% voted Lab or Con. 2010: 65% voted Lab or Con
- Growing support for smaller parties
- Strong leadership: Thatcher
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