US Chapter 6 - the Electoral College: weaknesses, possible reforms

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  • The Electoral College
    • Weaknesses
      • small-population states are over-represented
        • 2016: CA received one Electoral College vote for every 713,000 people, WY one for every 195,000 people
      • winner-take-all system distorts the result
        • 1996: Clinton won 70% of the Electoral College votes and only 49% of the popular vote
        • 2000: Gore: 48.4% of vote, Bush: 48% of vote, Bush won
        • 2016: Clinton: 48% of vote, Trump: 46% of vote, Trump won Electoral College vote comfortably
      • unfair to national third parties
        • 1992: Perot won 19% of popular vote, but no Electoral College votes
        • 2000: Ralph Nader won 3 million votes, no Electoral College votes
        • regional third parties tend to do better, where their vote isn't spread as thinly, e.g George Wallace in 1968 - won 45 EC votes in South
      • 'Rogue' electors
        • where electors cast their ballot for a candidate other than the one who won their state's popular vote
        • rarely more than one (if any)
          • however in 2016 there were 7, but didn't affect result of election
      • President and vice-president from different parties
        • Possibilty of it happening in 2000 when the election was very close to deadlock, possible that the House would've picked Bush and the Senate picked the Democratic VP: Lieberman
        • Never actually happened
    • Possible reforms
      • Direct election
        • would stop candidates with the lower popular vote winning election
        • Poll in 2007, 72% of population supported this reform
        • no need to gain an absolute majority, may need run-off election between top 2 candidates - more expensive and complicated
        • only a constitutional amendment could bring about this reform - success highly unlikely
      • Congressional district system
        • involves awarding 1 EC vote to a candidate for each congressional district they win and the extra 2 to the candidate who is the state-wide winner
        • Maine and Nebraska use this system
        • Results would be only marginally different in most of last 7 elections
        • In 2000, would've given a less proportional result and 2012 would've made Romney the winner of the election despite having lost by 5 million votes
        • wouldn't have helped Perot in 1992 or 1996
      • PR system
        • would render Electors unnecessary, so no more 'rogue' electors
        • fairer to national third parties
        • more likely no candidate would win an absolute majority of EC votes, would mean either election ends up in congress or a run-off system needed
        • would require constitutional amendment
      • National Popular Voter Interstate Compact (NPVIC)
        • Agreement among group of US states + DC to award all their EC votes to whichever candidate wins overall popular vote
        • 15 states + DC have signed it as of 2020
          • Limited: a lot of typically Republican states don't show much interest in signing it

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