SWING STATES

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  • SWING STATES
    • 'Super Swingy'
      • Phenomenon identified by Larry Sabato
        • States where Republican and Democrats carried the state in 2/4 elections since 2000
      • Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire
        • 2012, Obama and Romney collectively visited Ohio 35 times and Virginia 29 times from May to November
        • Ohio is a swing state because it is diverse, both rural and metropolitan
      • Trump won swingy states AND Democrat-leaning states ANOMOLY
        • 2016 only 109,000 votes decided the entire election
          • 2000, 529 votes in Florida won the whole election
    • Differing degrees of safety
      • Link to UK marginal and safe seats
      • Issues affecting certain swing states tend to become a part of the national campaign
        • e.g. Iowa and ethanol issues
      • Clinton lost in states with small communities but won megacities e.g. New York
    • Importance to winning an election?
      • Decreased but still significant, Obama won Ohio in 2012 after visiting 35 times
      • Doesn't assure victory
        • Fairness of the Electoral College depends on the swing states
      • Decreasing number of Swing States [4 in 2012] but bigger individual importance
        • Unfair? Democrat voter in Pennsylvania matters more than a Democrat voter in Texas

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