Superpower futures

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  • Superpower futures
    • By 2050, the BRIC's will be consuming huge amounts of raw materials
      • BRIC's are making a dent in USA's hegemony.
        • The USA has 170 TNC's out of the 500 in 2005.
          • China has 15 TNC's out of 500 in 2005.
          • In 2002, car sales in China were 3+ m. By 2009, ssales exploded to 11m, beating 10m in the US.
            • Two of the 'Detroit Three' went bankrupt in 2009.
        • Obama's administration would cut American emissions by 26-28% by 2050/ just under 3bn tonnes of carbon a year.
    • Impacts of emerging powers
      • India
        • Given India's size and pop. (1.3bn) its Co2 emisssions are relatively tiny.
          • At 1.6 tonnes of carbon per person per year, they're roughly the same as China's per-head emissions in 1980.
            • India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, wants to emulate China's sizzling growth
              • He had set India at target of expanding GDP by 8% a year.
                • If it comes close to meeting their targets, emissions will soar, just as China's have done.
                  • In 2015, Chinese emissions per head are 4 times those in India.
                    • Modi promised to increase renewable energy more thanfivefold by 2022
                • With economic growth of 8-9%, India's total emissions of Co2 would more than triple by 2030, from 1.7bn tonnes in 201o to 5.3bn tonnes.
                  • In the Nover=mber 2015 Paris talks, India promised that its carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP) would fall by a third before 2030.
                  • The country has more poor than anywhere else: 230m living on $1.90 a day.
                    • Have of rural households have no electricity. For the poor growth is essentialnd cacomes with it.
        • But, India has huge potential to project ints trogetory
      • China
        • As the primary emerging superpower, China has much to gain
          • 70% of China's energy comes from finite coal.
            • China became a 'factory to the world'.
              • A1/3 of China's farmland is contaminated by agricultural products./ suppliants
                • 40% of world trade goes through the South China sea, so they can control trade as in the Philippines.
    • Energy
      • Pressure on resources can be seen through car ownership.
        • In 2003, 13.6 out of every 1,000 urban households in China had a car. In 2003, the car ownership rate in the USA was 750 per 1,000
    • Environment
      • Chinese and Indian ecological footprints might be similar to those of the USA and EU by 2040.
        • Huge pressure on water, energy and land resources
          • In reality, this sort of future is unachievable, but might be possible with a dramatic shift to renewables/ better techno.

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