Responses to Hazards 3.1.5 - Reduce Vulnerability 

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  • Responses to Hazards 3.1.5 Reduce Vulnerability
    • Prediction and warning
      • Predicting volcanic eruptions
        • Seismicity
          • Short Period Earthquake
            • Caused by the fracturing of brittle rock as magma forces way upwards
              • Signify the growth of magma body near the surface
                • These are 'A' waves
          • Harmonic Tremor
            • Result of magma pushing against the overlying rock below the surface
              • Sometimes strong enough to be felt as humming or buzzing by people and animals
                • E.G Used very successfully at Popocatepetl, Mexico
          • Long Period Earthquake
            • Indicate increased gas pressure in a volcano plumbing system
              • Similar to the clanging sometimes heard in a housing plumbing system
                • These are 'B' waves
        • Gases
          • As magma  nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escapes
            • Sulphur Dioxide
              • Increases indicates the arrival of magma to the surfaace
                • E.G Strategy used at Pinatubo (May 13, 1991) increases in SO2
                  • May 28, increased to 5,000 tonnes, 10 times greater than earlier amount
          • SO2 emissions at low levels
            • Caused by sealing of gas passage ways  by hardened magma
              • Increased chance of an explosive eruption
        • Ground Deformation
          • Swelling: magma has accumulated near surface
            • E.G Monitoring Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan)
              • Most monitored areas on earth Kagoshima City, which has a population of 500,000 people
                • Unexpected high tide levels 
                  • Signalled by swelling of the land around the volcano as magma begins to build up
                • Underground observation tunnel and seismometers 
                  • Detect earthquakes up to 5 km around mountain and also below crate
                • Temperature sensors check for changes in temperature of hot springs 
                  • They are placed in bore holes used to detect ground water temperature
                • Remote sensing for gases as ratio of HCl to SO2 gas increases significantly before an eruption. 
          • Scientists can measure the tilt of a slope
            • Track changes in the rate of swelling
              • E.G Mount St. Helens - North side of the volcano was bulging upwards as magma was building up underneath
            • Tilt metres measure minute movements of the mountain
          • E.G San Andreas Fault
      • Response Period is the time between eruptions
        • Can indicate the size of the eruption
          • E.G Mount Etna, Italy. Long period, there was a large and explosive eruption
      • Earthquake activity
        • Shows magma below the volcano is  moving
      • Change in surface shape
        • This shows the magma rising beneath the surface
          • Leading to  a bulge of the surface
            • E.G Mount St Helens, USA
      • Changes in volume or type of volcano gases
        • If amount decreases can indicate a blocked vent
          • E.G Mount Pinatubo, Philippines
          • E.G Christchurch, New Zealand
      • Gases emitted  at or near a volcano
        • SO2 may show that new batch of magma has arrived at depth
      • Earthquake Prediction
        • Foreshocks
        • Ground Deformation
        • Unusual animal behaviour
        • P and S wave ratio
        • Water and radon levels in wells
        • Levels of manganese, zinc and copper in basaltic rocks
        • Monitoring how fast strain accumulates
        • Changes of electrical magnetic properties of rock
          • Monitoring with satieties electrical charges
    • Examples of earthquake prediction
      • Van, Turkey
        • 7.4 magnitude earthquake in 2011, lasting for 45 seconds
          • 25,000 people died
          • People didn't react to technology signs
          • North Anatolian Fault runs in a relatively straight line
        • Computer model alone the fault line
          • Showing a pattern from looking at past earthquakes
          • Predicting stress east to wets
      • L'Aquila, Italy
        • 6th April, 2009. Magnitude 6.3 earthquake
        • Public meeting 6 days prior to the shock
          • Members of Italy's Great Risk Commission down played the risk
            • People were not made aware of the likelihood of the disaster
        • Amateur seismologist, Giampaolo Giuliani
          • Predicted a major quake
            • Based on radon readings on his home made monitoring devices
        • 22nd October 2012, 6 scientists and one ex-governmemt official
          • All were at the meeting
          • Found guilty, for playing down the events, of manslaughter by an Italian judge
            • Sentenced to 6 years in prison
    • Pitfall to prediction and risks
      • Competing risks and priorities
      • Uncertain and difficulty with prediction
      • Unease with scientific jargon
      • Lacking emergency response infrastructure
      • Too many false alarms
    • Community preparedness
      • Land Use Planning and Zoning
        • Maps for soil liquefaction susceptibility and shaking intensity
          • E.G San Fransisco - liquefaction maps
            • Shows where the hard rock is
            • Therefore where to build skyscrapers
        • Volcano hazard maps
          • Pyroclastic flow and lateral blast hazard map.
          • Lahar hazard zones map
          • E.G Mount Shasta, USA
          • E.G Pinatubo, Philippines
          • E.G Montserrat, Caribbean
      • E.G Japan and California
        • Regular earthquake days
          • People practice evacuating buildings, fighting fires, coping with smoke filled rooms
      • E.G Japan
        • Grab bags, which for example would include first aid, sleeping bags, torch
          • Found in homes, businesses and schools
      • Remembering  past events, using it as a warning
        • E.G Japan
          • Hundreds of centuries-old tablets as reminders of tsunamis
      • Evacuation E.G Mt St Helens evacuation in 2004
        • Reduce death toll as direct certain areas to certain road
          • Avoids congestion

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