Possible consequences for UK of Turkey joining EU

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  • Possible consequences for UK of Turkey joining EU
    • Economic consequences - measured in?
      • Value or volume of X
      • GDP
    • Turkey has had strong growth which and also is a major centre of investment
  • GDP
  • Geographical position links Asia and Europe and Asia is important emerging market
    • Possible consequences for UK of Turkey joining EU
      • Economic consequences - measured in?
        • Value or volume of X
      • Turkey has had strong growth which and also is a major centre of investment
    • Can mean better exports to Asia and maybe X-led multiplier
      • Turkey is large market because expecting population of 100m by 2020.
        • Potentially a very attractive market for British financial or tertiary sector because Turkey is focused on secondary production iin form of textiles
  • Equally can mean influx of M and migrant labour for UK because free market and movement of labor
    • Geographical position links Asia and Europe and Asia is important emerging market
      • Can mean better exports to Asia and maybe X-led multiplier
        • Turkey is large market because expecting population of 100m by 2020.
          • Potentially a very attractive market for British financial or tertiary sector because Turkey is focused on secondary production iin form of textiles
    • Could worsen deficit and welfare bill if immigrants end up unemployed
      • Definitely not something UK is seeking as it has just narrowly avoided triple dip recession
    • Could simply mean slightly larger import bill because 50% (very large proportion) of Turkish imports are to Europe
      • Meaning that the change in M bill will not be significant enough to worsen trade deficit unsustainably and this also may be made up for with UK X to Turkey
      • Trade-off between Britain experiencing X growth but Un at home
  • could mean that UK can invest at high rates of return which brings investment income back to UK
    • Will strong Turkish growth be in the form of cheap imports to the EU?
      • However Turkey seems to want to M semi-manufactured goods which are not Britain's forte
        • Will the UK be able to meet demand if Turkey demands X from UK? Supply may not be able to increase greatly in SR
          • However in LR Britain may find various opportunities to adjust to additional demand
            • Migrant labour still brings in income tax revenue and further taxes too if migrants become residents in UK
              • Equally can mean influx of M and migrant labour for UK because free market and movement of labor
                • Could worsen deficit and welfare bill if immigrants end up unemployed
                  • Definitely not something UK is seeking as it has just narrowly avoided triple dip recession
                • Could simply mean slightly larger import bill because 50% (very large proportion) of Turkish imports are to Europe
                  • Meaning that the change in M bill will not be significant enough to worsen trade deficit unsustainably and this also may be made up for with UK X to Turkey
                  • Trade-off between Britain experiencing X growth but Un at home
            • However this could cause a Un problem for UK as migrants come in with more attractive skills than home market
              • Migrant labour still brings in income tax revenue and further taxes too if migrants become residents in UK
              • Turkey shown to be economically unstable  previously
                • Could be too much for already weak EU, several countries needing bailouts and Turkey may put too much pressure if they fell into mass Un or deficits
                  • Turkey shown to be economically unstable  previously
                    • Has grown at far better rate than UK even so unlikely to need bailout or put inflationary pressure on EU
                  • But EU may not be able to take risk atm because they only have a few strong members such as Germany
                    • Could be too much for already weak EU, several countries needing bailouts and Turkey may put too much pressure if they fell into mass Un or deficits
                      • Has grown at far better rate than UK even so unlikely to need bailout or put inflationary pressure on EU
                  • Could put CPI pressure on Eurozone if the exchange rate falls from cheap imports - imported raw materials will become more expensive to the Euro post-Turkey joining and thus zone will suffer since they don't have strong primary sector esp UK
                    • Will strong Turkish growth be in the form of cheap imports to the EU?
                    • Unlikely because UK doesn't import raw materials from Turkey and probably won't in future

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