Chap 1 - Mathematical models in probability and statistics

summary of chapter 1

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  • Mathematical Model
    • advantages
      • quick and easy to produce
      • simplifies a more complex situation
      • improves our understanding of the real world as certain variables can readily be changed
      • enables predictions to be made about the future
    • disadvantages
      • only gives a partial description of the real situation
      • only works for a restricted range of values
    • DEFINE: a simplification of a real world situation
    • Refining a model
      • 2  mathematical model is devised
      • 1  assumptions are made about an observed real world problem
      • 3  using the model, predict the expected outcome of the real world problem
      • 6  use statistical tests to assess how well the model describes the real world
      • 5  use techniques to compare predicted and observed outcomes
      • 4  collect data to match the conditions of the predicted values

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