How and why do the population size and the rate of population growth vary over time and space?

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  • How and why do the population size and the rate of population growth vary over time and space?
    • Global pattern of growth
      • currently 7.1 billion
        • average growth rate 1.2%
          • 1.35% in developing
            • Sub Saharan Africa and middle east have high growth rates
            • Latin America, Caribbean and Asia have lower growth rates
          • 0.22% in developed
            • N.America and Oceania have high growth rates
            • Eastern Europe and Russia have lower growth rates
      • 9.4 billion by 2050
    • Role of natural increase
      • Natural increase
        • Births>deaths
      • natural decrease
        • Deaths>births
      • vital rates
        • Crude Birth Rate
          • limited use
            • Crude Death Rate
            • take no account of age structure
        • Crude Death Rate
        • alternatives
          • Total Fertility Rate
          • Age Specific Mortality
          • Infant Mortality
          • Life Expectancy
    • Variation in world growth rates over time
      • Neolithic
        • pop = 5 million
          • growth rate = 0.1%
      • 2,000 years ago
        • pop = 300 million
      • 1600's
        • passed 500 million
      • 1830
        • 1 billion
      • early 1900's
        • 1.65 billion
      • 2000
        • Untitled
      • been steadily declining since peak of 2.2% growth in 1960
    • Role of migration
      • Net migration
        • Immigration/ emigration balance
        • composition
          • age
          • gender
          • socio economic status
          • affects demand, development and exploitation of resources
      • age selective
        • natural decrease
          • out movement of young migrants
          • in movement of retired migrants
        • natural increase
          • In movement of young migrants
    • Influence of demographic factors
      • age-sex structure
        • developing = young
          • natural increase
            • Demographic Momentum
        • developed = old
          • Raised mortality rates
            • natural decrease
              • Japan
              • Germany
              • Stage 5
      • migration
        • migration can drive population change at a regional scale
        • selective
          • Gender
            • young men
              • bulk of rural-urban migration in developing countries
              • outnumbered by female migrants in some regions
          • Age
            • young adults are most mobile
              • ambitions
              • less social ties
            • retired
              • freedom to choice where they live
          • stage in family life cycle
      • how the structure of a population affects its growth rate
    • Influence of social factors
      • cultural perceptions
      • Interpretations of religious attitudes
        • what theyaffect
          • cultural perceptions
          • family size
          • length of time between pregnancies
          • family planning techniques
      • don't assume the same religion exerts the same influence everywhere
        • Philippines vs Italy
          • Both roman catholic
            • Italy birth fertility rate = 1.3
            • Philippines fertility rate = 3
      • role and status of women
        • developing countries
          • less formal education
            • marry and have children younger
        • developed countries
          • occupied by higher education
            • marry and have children later
    • Influence of economic factors
      • association between rising wealth and lower fertility levels
      • MEDC
        • children remain financially dependant on parents for a long time
          • this cost delays some couples having children
            • this can lead to natural decrease
              • France offers tax breaks to couples with children to ease the economic cost
        • low mortality rate
      • LEDC
        • children contribute to family business
        • care for elderly parents later in life
          • no state pension or welfare
        • high mortality rate
          • bad diet
          • bad housing
          • no access to health care
      • life expectancy 15 years lower in LEDC
    • Influence of political factors
      • governments aim to decrease mortality rate and increase quality of life
        • provide clean water
        • provide safe disposal of waste
        • establish minimum housing standards
        • sponsor health services
      • policies aimed at influencing fertility
        • anti natalist
          • China
            • one child policy
              • forecasts suggest china will have 0 population growth by 2030
        • pro natalist
          • Russia
            • financial incentives worth 2 years income offered to women who have more than one child
      • governments can control movement across borders
        • if there is a labour shortage in migration of adults can be encouraged
          • Australia: 1950's - 1960's
            • Sought migrants to help economy grow
    • What are over and under population?
      • over population
        • populations over carrying capacity
      • under populatoin
        • populations that aren't able to make efficient use of resources available
          • e.g not enough labour to extract and process mineral resources
            • population growth would allow development of the resource base and raise living standards
      • Optimum population
        • population that maximises the ration between population and resources at a sustainable level
      • carrying capacity
        • relationship between people and resources that can be sustainably exploited
      • Not always related to population density
        • Japan
          • high population density but able to support population at one of the highest living standards in the world
    • How are over/under population related to growth rate?
      • if growth outstrips resource growth, then resources p/person must decline
      • Malthusian
        • mortality increases as resources become insufficient to support the population
          • population growth follows a geometric rate
          • resources grow arithmetically
      • Marxist
        • poverty is caused by unjust social, economic and political systems and not lack of resources
      • anti malthusian
        • as technology increases, resources will become more available and population will continue to increase
      • increasing integration of economic systems = greater food security

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