Climate change
- Created by: Doo Froggy
- Created on: 07-04-14 16:34
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- Climate change
- Causes
- Natural
- Astronomical forcing
- Milankovitch cycles (every 100,000 yrs- due to the tilt of the earth's axis
- Earth's axis shifts from 21.5° to 24.5°
- +_0.5°C
- Solar output
- Sunspots- dark spots on the sun caused by intense magnetic storms
- 11 year cycles
- Maunder Minimuum- 1645-1715, little sunspots- same time as the Little Ice Age
- Varying solar radiation by 0.1%
- Volcanic and cosmic
- Eject material (ash, SO2, CO2, H2O) into the stratosphere where the winds distribute it across the world
- Tambora, Indonesia (1815), 200m. tns of SO2, decrease in global temp. 0.4-0.7°C
- Astronomical forcing
- Human
- Increase in greenhouse gases
- 2 factories open a week in China
- 14% agriculture, 14% transport, 14% industry, 17% deforestation, 24% electricity & heat, 5% waste,
- fossil fuels have increased CO2 by 25%
- Industrialisation
- US=1st, China= 2nd
- Deforestation
- 90% of forest cover cleared from Ethiopian highlands
- Increase in greenhouse gases
- Natural
- Evidence
- Long term
- Ice cores
- Trapped air bubbles in the ice
- CO2 concentrations
- Holocene (now), Hoxnian (250ppm)= high conc.
- Wolstonian (200ppm)= low conc.
- Oxygen isotopes
- glacier- O16 evaporated more easily
- CO2 concentrations
- Trapped air bubbles in the ice
- Oceans
- CO2 sinks- absorbing
- Pollen
- May lag behind climate change
- Different species of plants (e.g. tundra in UK)
- Ice cores
- Medium term
- Qualitative evidence (paintings, poems, diaries, journals)
- Tree rings
- Changes in thickness- thick= good conditions
- Bristlecone Pines (US)
- Retreating glaciers
- Position of rocks
- Examples
- Medieval Warm Period (1400-1800)
- Little Ice Age (800-1400) -0.5°C. Thames froze
- Short term
- Met Office
- More frost free days
- European growing season is longer by 11 days- spring 6 days earlier
- Plants start growing at 5°C
- Butterflies moving further north
- IPCC
- 2°C 50% plants destroyed
- Long term
- The Greenhouse Effect
- Incoming short-wave (UV) radiation
- Absorbed by the land and ocean and reflected as long wave (IR) radiation
- Most IR is radiated back into space
- Some is returned due to the presence of greenhouse gases
- CO2- 280ppm
- Some is returned due to the presence of greenhouse gases
- More is trapped by the greenhouse gases
- CO2- 430ppm
- Most IR is radiated back into space
- Absorbed by the land and ocean and reflected as long wave (IR) radiation
- Without= -18°C
- Average =15°C
- Incoming short-wave (UV) radiation
- Greenhouse Gases
- CO2- transport, energy, etc.
- CH4- rice production, burning vegetation, coal mining, livestock, permafrost melting
- increased 4 times more quickly than CO2
- NO2-Agricultural fertilisers, fossil fuels, synthetic chemicals
- Destroys ozone
- CFCs- propellants in spray cans, foam plastics, refidgeration
- Now banned by Montreal protocol
- Destroys ozone
- H2O- evaporation of water- more cloud cover and condensation
- CO2, CH4, NO2 increased exponentially
- Strategies
- Adaptation
- Geo-engineering
- Orbiting solar shields, ocean iron seeding
- "one off" change, avoid lifestyle changes, costly, untried technology, unknown side effects
- Orbiting solar shields, ocean iron seeding
- Agricultural technology
- Drought tolerant crops
- Quickly adopted, costly for developing world
- Drought tolerant crops
- Land-use planning
- No development on floodplains and coasts
- Reduces vulnerability, costly, opposed by residents and businesses
- No development on floodplains and coasts
- Changing our lifestyles to cope with a new environment rather than trying to stop climate change
- Geo-engineering
- Mitigation
- Carbon neutral development
- Afforestation, renewable energy
- Land-use and lifestyle changes
- Afforestation, renewable energy
- Carbon capture
- Power stations, industry
- High costs, encourages usage of finite resources
- Power stations, industry
- Sustainable development
- Reduced resource consumption, recycling, locally sourced
- Slow, lifestyle changes opposed
- Reduced resource consumption, recycling, locally sourced
- Reducing the output of greenhouse gases and increasing the size of greenhouse gas sinnks
- Carbon neutral development
- Sustainable Development
- Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their owns needs
- Adaptation
- Impacts
- Increased food, water, farming costs
- Migration
- Increased health costs
- Increased aid
- Coastal and flood defences (>$10bn)
- Poverty bomb
- Players
- Businesses
- Shell, BP, Ford, etc. funded the Global Climate Coalition opposing action against climate change
- Now leaving due to public pressure, fears about energy supply, demands from investors, government, new technologies and markets
- Shell, BP, Ford, etc. funded the Global Climate Coalition opposing action against climate change
- UK
- Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050
- 20% renewable sources 2020
- Taxing cars- B=£35, G=£400
- London climate change strategy
- Green Homes Programme and new building standards
- Small scale renweables
- Recycling
- Concerting all 8000 buses to diesel and charging £25 for heavily polluting vehicles
- USA
- 18% reduction by 2012
- China
- Reduce CO2 emissions by 1.5bn tns
- EU
- Carbon trading scheme (EU ETS) and Certified Emission Reduction credits
- Contraction and convergence- come countries increase, others decrease
- Climate crusaders- famous people advertising climate change
- WWF, Al Gore, Arnold Schwarzenegger
- Montreal Protocol
- Kyoto Protocol
- 55 countries for it to become enforced- 2005 when Russia signed it
- EU=8%, USA=6%, Iceland=10%, Russia=0%
- 2001, USA bwithdrew- damage economy
- Businesses
- Key terms
- Weather
- The day to day state of the atmosphere
- Climate
- The average of weather (long term)
- Adaptive capacity
- The extent to which a system can cope with climate change (resources)
- Climate vulnerability
- The degree to which a natural or human system lacks the ability to cope with climate change
- Vulnerability= magnitude of change, speed of change, sensitivity of system, adaptive capacity
- Weather
- Barriers
- Uncertainty
- Inertia of system- gases already in atmosphere
- Positive feedback- e.g. permafrost and albedo
- Uncertainty of how it might change
- Political inertia- losing votes
- Costs- damage economic growth
- Lack of international agreements
- Uncertainty
- Causes
- Earth's axis shifts from 21.5° to 24.5°
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