Electoral process
Not finished, but it's got loads of detail about primaries
- Created by: Amh
- Created on: 11-12-12 13:24
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- Electoral Process
- Primary stage
- Invisible primaries
- Critically important to gaining funding and recognition
- In 19919 'beth Dole dropped out of the primary stage as she could not gain enough funding
- Al Gore's raising of a huige amount of funding detered candidates **** Gephardt and Bob Kerry in the 2000 democratic nominations
- There is a high correlation between who ever wins the invisible primaries and the presidential candidate winner
- not always the case
- In the Democratic 2004 nomination process Howard Dean was the front runner but crashed in the primaries
- In the 2008 primaries Giuliani (rep candidate) had a 10 point lead over McCain
- H. Clinton had a 15 point lead over Obama in '08
- not always the case
- Mainly played out by the media
- Support for candidates at this stage is mainly demonstrated by opinion polls ( some of which are regulated by the press...)
- There are some not so 'invisible' formal events that occur
- e.g. For the 2008 election there were 16 televised debates between would-be democratic candidates, and 12 of the republicans
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- Jefferson-Jackson day dinner, held in iowa, provides an opportunity for speech making
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- Many candidates use this time to publish autobiographies
- Critically important to gaining funding and recognition
- Primaries
- Def: a state based election to choose a parties candidate for presidency among ordinary voters it also choooses delegaates committed to votee a certain way
- New Hamphire is the first primary
- McGovern-Fraser Commission
- Democratic party reform which led to increased numbers of primaries
- -ves
- Widespread voter apathy and boredom
- primary voters unrepresentative
- process is far too long
- process is very expensive
- dominated by the media
- lack of 'peer review'
- +ves
- increased level of participation to 30% from 11%
- Sig. increase in the choice of candidates
- Open's proccess to outisder politicians with less recognition
- Less corrupted
- First real test of how resiliant the candidates are
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- How to improve the nomination process
- Regional primaries
- 4 primaries as a result of 4 regions, on a cyclical order of early dates
- or they could divide the regions based on district, with those of the smallest populations going first
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- pre primaries
- A mini convention that would approve a list of candidates, and then pick 3 to be put forward for primaries
- Regional primaries
- Are primaries important
- Do they accurately predict results?
- Democrats: YES
- Especially in 2008
- Not accurately in the republican party
- Democrats: YES
- they re-affirm the front runner
- Do they accurately predict results?
- Caucuses
- Def: A state based series of meetings for the selection of a parties candidate
- Held in states thate are large geographically but sparsley populated
- e.g. Iowa Nebraska, and Nevada
- Unrepresentative, low turnouts
- Favour candidates who are more ideological
- e.g. Ron Paul, who is on the libertarian branch of ther republican party woon the plurality, 21% in N. Dakota, and 19% in Maine
- Favour candidates who are more ideological
- Iowa
- First caucus
- often mimick election results
- First caucus
- Timing
- State parties usually try to pin the earliest possible date
- Regional primaries
- Some neighbouring states try to make primary dates coincide
- 2008, on the first Tuesday of February - super tuesday, 22 Democratic and 21 Republican
- To gain influence
- 2008, on the first Tuesday of February - super tuesday, 22 Democratic and 21 Republican
- Some neighbouring states try to make primary dates coincide
- Some like to have individual dates to gain priminence like New Hampshire
- Front end Loading
- Regional primaries
- State parties usually try to pin the earliest possible date
- Types of primaries
- Open
- any registered voter can vote
- Closed
- Only registered members of a party can vote in their parties primary
- There are some states that allow 'cross over voting'
- Open
- Invisible primaries
- National conventions
- Held between July and September
- Formal functions
- Selct the vice candidate
- Select the presidential candidate
- Deciding the party plattform
- Informal functions
- Reconcile differences between the candidates
- Enthuse the swinging voters
- Enthuse the party faithful
- Primary stage
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